With no new fight announcements to write about this morning, instead I’ll point out five prop bets for UFC 186 that I feel have a good chance of winning this weekend. Demetrious Johnson wins inside the distance (+100) The main event of UFC 186 is a squash match between UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson and challenger Kyoji Horiguchi. The Japanese native is a solid fighter, but he is not yet on Johnson’s level and I don’t see how he wins this fight — instead, I see him getting outclasses and finished. Instead of betting on Johnson at 10-1, though, take a shot at Johnson wins inside the distance at +100. That’s fair value for the most likely outcome, as I don’t see how Horiguchi survives 25 minutes without getting knocked out or submitted. Michael Bisping wins by T/KO (+370) I feel like Michael Bisping is one of the most underrated finishers in the UFC middleweight division and CB Dollaway is a guy who usually gets finished in his losses. And I think that’s what happens at UFC 186. I think Bisping can find Dollaway’s chin at some point in the second or third round and put his opponent away via T/KO. At +370, the odds look pretty enticing to make a play here. Rampage Jackson wins by decision (+150) Some feel like Rampage Jackson will finish Fabio Maldonado, but I’m not so sure. I think Rampage is the better fighter, but I have a feeling Maldonado will tough it out and make it the full three rounds to a decision. So at +150, I do see some value in the prop on Rampage winning on the judges’ cards. Thomas Almeida wins by T/KO (+100) The opening main card bout sees Thomas Almeida battle Yves Jabouin, and this fight looks like a mismatch to me. Almeida has ridiculous knockout power for 135lbs and Jabouin has a very questionable chin. At 35 years of age, Jabouin will have a hard time dealing with the speed of Almeida, and I see him getting brutally knocked out in this fight. At +100, the odds for an Alemida T/KO win are pretty solid. Chris Clements wins by T/KO (+600) And finally, in one of the Fight Pass prelims Chris Clements takes on Nordine Taleb and I feel like there is a very good chance Clements scores a knockout win. Taleb does not like to engage in striking battles but Clements is as dangerous on the feet as they come and with his improved wrestling, he should be able to keep this fight standing and possibly finish Taleb via knockout. At +600, the odds are good enough to take a shot.
