UFC Fight Night 64 Date: April 11, 2015 Arena: Krakow Arena City: Krakow, Poland The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) makes a trip to Poland for the first time in UFC history with UFC Fight Night 64, which will be live tomorrow from Krakow, Poland and headlined by a heavyweight rematch between Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga. The 12-fight card will stream entirely live on UFC Fight Pass, with the four-fight main card kicking off at 1pm ET and eight-fight preliminary action preceding it at 11:15am ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 64 in Krakow are: Heavyweight bout: Gabriel Gonzaga (-210) vs Mirko Cro Cop (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a very tough fight for me to call, but to put it simply, I’m gonna go with the superior striker with the solid takedown defense in this five round main event match-up. I think he will find success defending Gonzaga’s takedown attempts and this fight will play out on the feet, where one man will ultimately go down. Neither of them have the best chin, so Cro Cop being the superior striker and a near 2-to-1 underdog here, I am gonna take a stab at him. If a finish fails to come in this bout and it see’s it’s way to a judges’ decision following 25-minutes of heavyweight action, I would again favor the superior striker (Cro Cop) with the hometown advantage (though he is Croatian, not Polish) to take the win on points. Gabe’s Call: Cro Cop by T/KO (head-kick and punches, 2:17 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cro Cop (+190) .5u to win .95u Welterweight bout: Leon Edwards (-135) vs Seth Baczynski (+115) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think “The Polish Pistola” should be a -210 betting favorite headed into this contest, so I really like him for a play at his current underdog tag of +115. If the fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I think he has a much better chance of taking it. It could be more one-sided in his favor or closely-contested, but either way he will likely get the nod, and having the hometown advantage will benefit him, as well, considering he is a fighter of Polish descent who is going to Poland for the first time in his life. I like his chances of earning a decision more than I do Edwards’, but if the fight were to end inside the distance, I also favor him to get the finish more so than Edwards as well. It’s a realistic possibility that Edwards could knock Baczsynski out, which I think is his best route to victory. However, I think Baczynski’s odds of finising Edwards by either T/KO or submission are greater than Edwards knocking him out. That said, I think the most likely outcomes to this welterweight contest are Baczynski by Decision and Baczynski by Submission, so I will be taking “The Polish Pistola” straight-up. Gabe’s Call: Baczynski by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Baczynski (+115) 3.35u to win 3.85u Bantamweight bout: Taylor Lapilus (-210) vs Rocky Lee (+175) Gabe’s Thoughts: I see this fight playing out similarly to Royston Wee vs Dave Galera; I think Lee continuously takes Lapilus down and grinds him out over the course of three rounds of action to pick up a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. I would not be surprised to see him earn a stoppage by either T/KO or submission (likely a rear naked choke), but I think more often than not he takes this one home on the cards. Training at the American Kickboxing Academy since his time on The Ultimate Fighter: China, I expect improvements in his game, even in his base of wrestling. Gabe’s Call: Lee by Unanimous Decision (head-kick and punches, 2:17 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lee (+175) 2.2u to win 3.85u
