After years of talk, the UFC is finally making its way to the Philippines, as UFC Fight Night 66 will mark the promotion’s first trip to Southeast Asia. The card is headlined by a superfight at featherweight, as former champions Frankie Edgar and Urijah Faber meet in what should be an entertaining affair. Middleweights Gegard Mousasi and Costas Philippou will square off in the co-main event, while one of the UFC’s fighters with Filipino heritage, Mark Munoz, also has a spot on the main card taking on Luke Barnatt. The card also features a decidedly Asian flair, with Hyun Gyu Lim taking on Neil Magny, Yui Chul Nam facing the returning Phillipe Nover, and several of the cast members from TUF China competing at the event. The odds for Edgar/Faber have been released for quite some time, but the line has only seen some tightening so far. Edgar opened a -380 favorite (bet $380 to win $100) and remains there, while Faber has moved from +260 (bet $100 to win $260) up to +315. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining lines for UFC Fight Night 66 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10am ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7:30am ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: Costa Philippou struggles when he can’t just get rid of his opponents with power, and Gegard Mousasi isn’t going to get knocked out in this fight. That means Mousasi’s more technical striking and grappling is going to come into play, and even if Philippou survives I can’t see him having much success. How this fight really plays out will depend on if aggressive Mousasi or complacent Mousasi shows up, but regardless of which one it is, the former Strikeforce and DREAM champion should win. Is Mark Munoz in the Gray Maynard/Josh Koscheck category at this point? The Roan Carneiro loss was surprising, but Luke Barnatt isn’t quite the same grappling threat that Carneiro presented, and Munoz should be able to get this to the mat even with Barnatt’s improved takedown defense. Does that mean I’m betting Munoz? No, but if I can get some plus money on him that stance may change as I lean to him to get the win ever so slightly, especially being motivated by fighting in the Philippines. I think that Hyun Gyu Lim is a really bad matchup for Neil Magny. While Magny has better cardio, I don’t think he’ll be able to out-cardio Lim like he’s been able to do to some of his recent opponents, and on the feet — where I expected Lim to be able to keep this fight — Magny has to be very wary of Lim’s reckless power. Magny also won’t have his customary size advantage, and when fighters used to having, and using, that advantage suddenly don’t, they can become uncomfortable. I think Lim may score a knockout here, but I’m hoping Magny’s recent run will have the public favoring him. Phillipe Nover has always been better than the overreaction the MMA world had to the ridiculous hype that was heaped upon him during his TUF stint, but that puts him somewhere between Anderson Silva and a complete can. In 2015, he belongs in the UFC, but in its lower tier at lightweight, and Yui Chul Nam is the type of fighter who can pressure Nover and force him to be conservative. Nam could finish Nover or outwork him to a decision, but I like Nam here as long as he can keep this standing. I’ve never been high on Jon Tuck, and I’m strongly considering a play on Tae Hyun Bang in this fight. Tuck has a clear grappling edge, but also very poor cardio, and suspect striking defense. I think Bang can survive some bad spots in the first round and take over for the final two, beating Tuck on the feet en route to a decision. Tuck does seem to get some decent respect from bettors, so this is another line I’ll wait on before playing. White and Eddiva screams pass at the current line. I favor White to win, but he’s atrocious defensively, and we’ve seen that Eddiva can hang around and absorb some punishment to dish his own out. I think White has enough small edges here (power, wrestling, aggressiveness) to win the fight, but he should be no more than a 2-to-1 favorite, and I’m not even sure I’d bet him at that price. I feel crazy for saying this, but I think this could be a successful card for Chinese fighters. Kajan Johnson is a more skilled submission artist than Lipeng Zhang, but Zhang is a bigger, stronger fighter, a better wrestler, and far more durable. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Zhang grind out a decision here, but I need more than even money to bet it. I’m a degenerate, and I’ve bet on Royston Wee to win in a couple of UFC bouts, but he looked very shaky against a much smaller, extremely inexperienced fighter in Yao Zhuikui last time out. Ning Guangyou should be better suited to take on Wee technically and physically, and I think that will be enough for him to pull out the victory in what may not be the most appealing fight to watch. Nolan Ticman looks like a good fighter for about 3 or 4 minutes, and then his cardio really lets him down. Once that happens, I think Zhuikui is worth a shot in this fight as he could wrestle and volume-strike his way to a decision. There may not be live betting available, so I’m tempted to play Zhuikui pre-fight in anticipation of Ticman tiring, but I’m hoping that the Chinese fighter won’t get any respect from bettors and this line will get longer and longer leading up to the fight. Jingliang Li has been in competitive fights with better wrestlers than Dhiego Lima, and probably has a wrestling advantage here. The younger Lima is a better submission artist and a better technical striker, but coming off a TKO loss, I don’t think he’ll be overly assertive on the feet, and that could allow Li to get in the clinch and shut Lima’s game down. Once they get inside I think Li will be controlling position, and we could see another upset here. Jon de los Reyes is one of the few favorites that I’m fairly confident in. He’s a much better and more dangerous striker than Sangcha-an, and we saw in Roldan’s debut that he’s not an overly powerful wrestler. I think de los Reyes keeps this on the feet and may even score an early stoppage. Even if he doesn’t, he should win a decision though.