The Octagon heads back down to Brazil this Saturday for just the second card in Brazil to be headlined by a female fight. Cris ‘Cyborg’ Justino and Lina Lansberg meet at a catchweight of 140 pounds, as Cyborg continues to search for more of a direction in her UFC run. While this fight likely will be just as big a blowout as Cyborg’s UFC debut, at least these fighters hold one thing in common. Both lost their first pro fight and have been undefeated since then, with Cyborg scoring 16 straight wins, and Lansberg securing six. The co-main event will pit Renan Barao against Phillipe Nover. The battle could be characterized as one between a former champion and a former “future Anderson Silva,” which has no bearing at all, but is entertaining to think about. Barao has dropped two straight fights and three of his last four dating back to dropping his title to TJ Dillashaw. For Nover, this will be the most high-profile spot of his career, but he enters this fight coming off a loss. The odds for those top two bouts — as well the as rest of the main card — were released at Several Bookmakers last week, and you can see those lines here. Today, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining lines for UFC Fight Night 95, which include some very grappling-heavy bouts. BJJ world champion Gilbert Burns will look to put his skills up against the brute strength of Michel Prazeres. Burns has won every bout where his opponent has allowed him to use his elite grappling, and that has typically been Prazeres’ MO, so it will be interesting to see how ‘Trator’ approaches this one. Rani Yahya and Michinori Tanaka could be looking at a Fight of the Night bonus, as they scramble their way around the mat for 15 minutes in a bantamweight clash. Vicente Luque also looks to follow up his two recent submission wins against Hector Urbina. Other bouts on UFC Fight Night 95 include: Lightweights Stevie Ray vs. Alan Patrick, welterweights Erick Silva vs. Luan Chagas, and Glaico Franca welcoming lightweight Gregor Gillespie to the Octagon. ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Lina Akhtar Lansberg +600 Cristiane Justino -1200 Over 1.5 +220 Under 1.5 -300 – Phillipe Nover +280 Renan Barao -400 Over 2.5 -165 Under 2.5 +125 – Antonio Silva +260 Roy Nelson -380 Over 1.5 +140 Under 1.5 -180 – Paul Felder -110 Francisco Trinaldo -130 Over 2.5 -160 Under 2.5 +120 – Eric Spicely +385 Thiago Santos -505 Over 1.5 +110 Under 1.5 -150 – Mike de la Torre +115 Godofredo Pepey -155 Over 1.5 -140 Under 1.5 +100 – ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Michel Prazeres +145 Gilbert Burns -185 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 – Michinori Tanaka -115 Rani Yahya -125 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 – Dustin Ortiz +150 Jussier Formiga -190 Over 2.5 -230 Under 2.5 +170 – Luan Chagas +135 Erick Silva -175 Over 1.5 -165 Under 2.5 +125 – ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:30pm ET) Alan Patrick +200 Stevie Ray -280 Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +100 – Hector Urbina +325 Vicente Luque -475 Over 1.5 -175 Under 1.5 +135 – Glaico Franca +110 Gregor Gillespie -150 Over 2.5 -140 Under 2.5 +100 – ——————– Brad’s Analysis: This fight is intriguing to me because I’m curious how effective Burns can be from his back. Even the best grapplers in MMA (Demian Maia and Jacare Souza) do the bulk of their work from top position, but they have much more effective ways to get there. Maia’s clinch wrestling is excellent, and he has the best sweep game that MMA has ever seen. Jacare is a powerhouse wrestler, and he can keep foes honest with his striking. In terms of pure BJJ, Durinho is probably the closest to those two, but he lacks the extra tools which will keep him from becoming elite. On the feet, Prazeres isn’t exactly pretty, but he will push forward aggressively and throw a much higher volume than Burns. In the clinch and wrestling, Prazeres will be able to outmuscle Burns and get top position. The question is, how long will he be able to do that? Prazeres has slowed down in fights in the past, and we know Burns still has plenty left in the third round. If Prazeres manages his cardio, he could walk away with an upset, but if he doesn’t there could be a late stoppage in the cards for Burns. Once the props become available, Prazeres by Decision and Burns R2 or R3 could be angles here. The roles are somewhat reversed in the Yahya/Tanaka bout. Yahya normally starts strong early, but tends to tire late (although he didn’t against Matthew Lopez, which was nice to see). Tanaka can push a much higher pace than Yahya through 15, but will he end up in too much trouble early to even have a chance to test Yahya’s cardio? If Tanaka had a cleaner striking game I’d feel much better about picking him here, but this one is a coin toss to me. I may have to take the value that I imagine will be present with Tanaka, but it won’t be without some sweaty moments early. Vicente Luque seems like the most obvious winner in these prelims to me. Hector Urbina has poor takedown defense, and that’s not a good sign against Luque. Urbina has only been submitted twice across 27 career bouts, but Luque is also the most talented grappler he’s faced by some margin. The only way I can really see Alan Patrick winning this fight is if his failed takedown attempts will make an impression on the judges. He’s got a decent reach advantage over Stevie Ray on the feet, but is so tentative — and an inferior striker to begin with — that Ray will more than make up for that discrepancy. I see Ray putting Patrick into a shell much like Mairbek Taisumov was able to, and while he may not score the same TKO victory, it will be a dominant win for him to move to a somewhat surprising 4-0 in the UFC. If there’s one skill that Luan Chagas showed in his UFC debut, it’s that he can tough it out. Coming in on short notice against Sergio Moraes, he went for the kill early and burnt himself out. Still he was able to survive the next 10 minutes on the ground against a top notch grappler. Erick Silva is at the point where I don’t trust him to pull the trigger (which gives Chagas the advantage early), and his cardio is suspect (which means Chagas won’t be at the massive disadvantage he was late in his debut). Plus, Nordine Taleb cracked his chin big time in his last outing. As long as Chagas comes out more prepared for his first UFC fight with a full camp, I think he gets the win and sends Erick Silva on his way from the UFC. After years and years of being unable to find Ring of Combat fights online, they’re finally there. Thanks Lou Neglia! Gregor Gillespie seems like the type of name that would indicate a BJJ background, especially coming out of ROC and being so close to camps like Renzo’s and Ricardo Almeida’s. Gillespie however, is instantly one of the most decorated wrestlers to enter the UFC, as he was a four-time All-American and one-time national champion at Edinboro. Those wrestling skills have helped him to a 7-0 record, and will be essential against a fighter in Glaico Franca who has actually found most of his early UFC success using his own takedowns. Gillespie is still a bit raw and has put himself in bad positions in fights, but I think he’ll be cautious early, and then be able to open up more on the mat as Franca tires in the second and third rounds. I think Gillespie gets it done in his debut, and with how porous Franca’s striking defense is, we may even be able to get a look at the wrestler’s striking.
