UFC Fight Night 93: Arlovski vs Barnett Date: September 3, 2016 Arena: Barclaycard, Arena City: Hamburg, Germany The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Hamburg, Germany for the first time in promotional history. The main card action is set to kick off at 3pm ET, with prelims preceding it at 11:45am ET. All of the action will be live on UFC Fight Pass. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Light Heavyweight bout: Alexander Gustafsson (-750) vs Jan Blachowicz (+525) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 205-pound match-up is a lot closer than the current betting odds suggest. I think Blachowicz should be +400 in this spot, which means I see value in him at his current offering price of +525. I thought about making a move on him but ultimately opted to pass. I believe Gustafsson is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this contest and I expect him to get the better of the Pole on the feet for the majority of three rounds for a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Blachowicz is not easy to put away and I think there’s a good chance Gustaffson will fight a smart and calculated fight, rather than hunt for the kill. Contrary to popular opinion, I think he wins this fight via decision more times than by finish. The Total of Over 2.5 rounds is at +120 and I think that line holds some value and is worthy of a wager. Gabe’s Call: Gustafsson by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (+120) 2u to win 2.4u Light Heavyweight bout: Ryan Bader (-220) vs Ilir Latifi (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think Bader uses his jab to outpoint Latifi over the course of three rounds for a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Coming off a knockout loss, I think he fights smart and stays careful. The jab is his key to victory against Rashad Evans and I think he can find similar success with it against Latifi. As long as he avoids getting caught, I think he takes this one on the cards. The Total is set at 1.5 rounds with a -170 price tag, and I think that’s worth a play. Gabe’s Call: Bader by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-170) 2.55u to win 1.5u
