ufc-fight-night-94This weekend here at MMAOddsBreaker.com we released the opening odds for the main card of UFC Fight Night 94. The card is headlined by a matchup between lightweight contenders Dustin Poirier and Michael Johnson. A solid supporting cast is topped by a middleweight contest pitting Derek Brunson against Uriah Hall. Today, we shift gears to the undercard and complete the odds for the Octagon’s first trip to Hidalgo. There was a change to the card over the course of the weekend. The bantamweight bout between TUF Latin America winner Alejandro Perez and UFC newcomer Albert Morales was dropped down to Fight Pass, while featherweights Chas Skelly and Maximo Blanco will now kick off the main card. The preliminary card features six bouts split between Fox Sports 1 and UFC Fight Pass, starting at 7 pm ET. Another TUF Latin America competitor, Gabriel Benitez, tops the bill against TUF Live veteran Sam Sicilia. The Mexican presence continues throughout the prelims of the UFC’s first trip to the border town, as Augusto Montano, Jose Quinones and Erick Montano all have spots on the card as well. Augusto Montano will be taking on Belal Muhammad, who impressed in his UFC debut despite losing and taking a great deal of punishment. The other Montano, Erick, is in tough as well, facing Randy Brown, who will be looking to rebound from his first career loss in his last outing. TUF Latin America finalist Quinones rounds out the Mexican contingent with his bout against Joey Gomez, who needs a win after being dominated in his UFC debut. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 94 today at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10pm ET) Michael Johnson +135 Dustin Poirier -175 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 – Uriah Hall +165 Derek Brunson -215 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 – Rick Glenn +200 Evan Dunham -280 Over 2.5 -190 Under 2.5 +150 – Roan Carneiro -110 Kenny Robertson -130 Over 2.5 -160 Under 2.5 +120 – Chris Wade +115 Islam Makhachev -155 Over 2.5 -180 Under 2.5 +140 – Maximo Blanco +130 Chas Skelly -170 Over 1.5 -180 Under 1.5 +140 – ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET) Gabriel Benitez +150 Sam Sicilia -190 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – Augusto Montano +225 Belal Muhammad -305 Over 2.5 -175 Under 2.5 +135 – Leonardo Augusto Leleco +175 Antonio Carlos Junior -245 Over 1.5 -195 Under 1.5 +155 – Jose Quinonez +130 Joey Gomez -170 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 7 pm ET) Erick Montano +250 Randy Brown -350 Over 1.5 -180 Under 1.5 +140 – Alejandro Perez +110 Albert Morales -150 Over 1.5 -190 Under 1.5 +150 – ——————– Click here for Brad’s betting analysis on the UFC Fight Night 94 main card Brad’s Analysis: Maximo Blanco is always tough to bet in fights when he’s favored because of his consistency and decision-making. Luckily, that’s not the case here. Chas Skelly has an impressive looking UFC record at 4-2, but all of his wins have come against fighters who are no longer with the promotion (Niinimaki, Soriano, Alers, and Souza), although he has been competitive in his two losses to Darren Elkins and Mirsad Bektic. It makes it tough to judge where he truly stands in the division, but I can’t help but feel like he’s both the lesser athlete and lesser skilled of the two fighters here. While betting Blanco as a favorite is tough, he’s so talented that he’s the type of guy I like to bet as a dog, especially against someone as hittable as Skelly. Sam Sicilia has a clear path to victory against Gabriel Benitez, and that’s to use his wrestling. Even an exhausted Clay Collard was able to get Benitez down with ease, and Sicilia is a far better wrestler than that. His chin is a bit iffy, so maybe Benitez can land a big shot and turn the fight around, but I think Sicilia getting on top repeatedly to earn a decision is the most likely scenario. Augusto Montano’s UFC run hasn’t inspired much confidence. He beat Chris Heatherly — who is a real fighter that got omoplatta’d in the UFC — in Mexico City, and then lost a decision to Cathal Pendred in Mexico City in a fight he did absolutely nothing in. If he gives Belal Muhammad the time and space to work that he gave Pendred, he’s going to get torched. If he comes forward aggressively, I think he eats shots as well, and he doesn’t have the grappling game to put Muhammad on his back. Bad matchup for Montano, but good booking for Muhammad to pick up a win after his tough debut. Antonio Carlos Jr. losing to Dan Kelly was one of the most shocking results of the year to me. I think he bounces back against Leonardo Guimaraes, but I obviously didn’t expect him to lose to Kelly in the first place. Guimaraes seems content to let his opponent dictate the fight, and then comes forward in wild burts. With an 8-inch reach advantage, Carlos Jr. should be able to control distance and switch gears for takedowns, as Guimaraes moves forward and leaves himself open. Once on the ground, Anthony Smith was able to dominate Guimaraes until a terrible stand up put them back on the feet. If Smith could do that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Carlos Jr. score a submission. However, Guimaraes is strong in the third round, so if Carlos Jr. can’t get the finish and slows down, it could be a sweat to the finish for his backers. Jose Quinonez showed solid grappling — albeit against a relative novice on the ground — in his last fight, and should be looking to follow the same gameplan here against Joey Gomez, who was a trendy pick in his UFC debut against Rob Font because of his boxing skills. But I wasn’t impressed, as Gomez seemed to be pushing a lot of his punches and didn’t land with much. The one thing that did impress me about Gomez was his ability to scramble back to his feet, and that will be a key here. If he can stay standing and be more relaxed against Quinonez, he should be able to pick up a win. However, if he’s tight and Quinonez can force a high-paced grappling match, Gomez will tire and not be able to scramble up as quickly. I’ll take Gomez to bounce back, but this fight could be much closer than the line indicates. Apparently, Erick Montano won TUF Latin America 2. I honestly had zero recollection of that. I went back and watched the fight, and there’s nothing that really stands out about him. I’m also not sure where he’s going to win this fight. I’m sure he’d like to go out and get takedowns on Randy Brown, but even against a far superior wrestler in Michael Graves, Brown showed good takedown defense until he tired. That means Montano is probably going to end up stuck on the feet with a much longer and more skilled striker. I don’t see that ending well for him, and think Brown may finally show some of the promise that had him come into the UFC with a bunch of hype.


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