UFC 159: April 27, 2013 Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey UFC Heavyweight Contender Roy Nelson (-230) Profile: Winner of The Ultimate Fighter Season 10, outspoken, big-bellied heavyweight Roy Nelson (18-7) may be undersized and seemingly out of shape, but he is a student of the MMA game and always exciting. His grappling credentials are never to be questioned – he is an instructor and Renzo Gracie black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with insanely heavy hands that have delivered three Knockout of the Night bonuses and a chin made of granite. A formula for MMA popularity if there ever was one, UFC president Dana White realized the 36-year-old Las Vegas resident is ratings gold and cast him as a coach opposite fellow heavyweight contender Shane Carwin in TUF 16. While Carwin was a superior coach, he got hurt before he could fight Nelson, who ended up scoring an easy first-round TKO win against replacement Matt Mitrione. UFC Heavyweight Contender Cheick Kongo (+170) Profile: French kickboxer and longtime UFC heavyweight Cheick Kongo (18-7-2) has been middling around outside the UFC heavyweight Top 15 rankings for a few years now. At 37 years of age, Kongo is pushing for one more run at the title. Coming off a devastating TKO loss at the hands of Mark Hunt at UFC 144 after wins over Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione, Kongo rebounded with an ugly unanimous decision win over newcomer Shawn Jordan at UFC 149. Kongo still has knockout power, but his severe lack of a ground game continues to hold him back as his only real weakness, keeping him from becoming an elite, well-rounded fighter. Opening UFC 159 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Nelson a solid -230 favorite (bet $230 to win $100) while Kongo opened as a +170 underdog (bet $100 to win $170) at Several Bookmakers sportsbook. This is Nelson’s type of fight against an opponent in Kongo who is one-dimensional and does not figure to outlast him en route to a decision victory. Both fighters have combined for 21 knockout wins between them, and Nelson is the superior grappler with five submissions. Kongo has not fought since last July, and he looked far from impressive in grinding out a victory against Jordan that was painful to watch. If he fights the same way here at UFC 159, Nelson will knock him out fairly easily. Nelson is always looking for a stoppage, as his cardio is nothing to write home about either. Six of Nelson’s seven losses have come via UD, and it’s safe to say he will not be looking to go the distance against Kongo. Nelson has only been finished once though by Andrei Arlovski in his pre-UFC days compared to three stoppage losses for Kongo, so he figures to have a much better chance of being the last man standing in this battle of veteran heavyweights.
