UFC 202 Date: August 20, 2016 Arena: T-Mobile Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in the fight capital of the world, Las Vegas, NV on August 20, 2016 with UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor II. Main card action will be kicking off on Pay Per View at 10pm ET, with preliminary bouts preceding it on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET and on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Welterweight bout: Hyun Gyu Lim (-275) vs Mike Perry (+235) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound scrap is closer than the betting odds currently indiciate, and at these odds, I see it as a “dog or pass” situation in which I ultimately opt to take the pass. There are too many question marks currently surrounding Perry heading into his Octagon debut, so I couldn’t confidently back him. I couldn’t confidently go against him, either, and certainly not at a juicy -275. Especially considering the fact that he has very much been a one round fighter in his UFC tenure. He only has enough gas for 1.5 rounds, and if he fails to earn a finish, he puts himself at high risk of being finished late or losing a decision. If you’re riding with the dog on this one, I can’t blame you, but I think this is a fight that is worth staying away from. Avoid this one at the sportsbooks come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Lim by T/KO (strikes, 1:48 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Featherweight bout: Artem Lobov (-110) vs Chris Avila (-110) Gabe’s Thoughts: If you can trust Lobov enough to back him, then you must knoow something I don’t. I don’t believe he is a UFC-caliber featherweight at all, and win or lose, I don’t think he has much of a future in the division, despite all the breaks he has been getting because he is McGregor’s friend. Realistically, he should have been released following his last poor performance, a unanimous decision loss to Alex White; an opponent Lobov personally claimed the UFC was giving him so he could get an easy knockout. It stylistically was a match-up he was supposed to win and he failed, yet he was not released and gets to fight another day. Having the worst UFC record at 11-12, I think Lobov is a fighter that should be faded at the sportsbooks. However, I think Avila is too green and there are currently too many question marks surrounding him for me to confidently take him at coin-flip odds. If he was a 2-to-1 underdog, I would have taken the gamble, but at these odds, I don’t think it’s worth it. I think it is best to sit back and see how this one plays out. Avoid. Gabe’s Call: Avila by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-300) vs Max Griffin (+250) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound affair is closer than the betting odds currently suggest. I see this as another “dog or pass” situation, and again, I am opting to take a pass with this one. Griffin has potential and is capable of winning this fight, so I can’t take Covington at -300. The +250 on Griffin is a bit enticing and I kept staring at it for a while, but I just couldn’t get myself to pull the trigger on it. I see some value there, but I suppose it isn’t enough to get me on the train. I can’t blame anyone for taking a stab on the dog here, but I think it would serve best to stay away from this one on Saturday. I say avoid. Gabe’s Call: Covington by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
