UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley Date: July 30, 2016 Arena: Philips Arena City: Atlanta, GA Welterweight bout: Matt Brown (-245) vs Jake Ellenberger (+225) Fight Breakdown: The main card for UFC 201 will feature a welterweight clash between Matt “The Immortal” Brown and Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger, with Brown being a -245 ($245 to win $100) underdog and Ellenberger being a +225 ($100 to win $225) underdog to win at Several Bookmakerss. Matt Brown(20-14 MMA, 13-8 UFC) is coming off a third round rear naked choke submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 198 in Brazil just a couple of months ago and he looks to get back on track by taking out Kings MMA’s Jake Ellenberger. Owning 11 of his 13 UFC victories by either T/KO or submission, Brown is certainly a finisher. He is an aggressive fighter who looks to move forward and constantly pressure his opponents. He possesses great power in both hands and a solid chin behind them. He is very durable and will have the cardio for a full three rounds of action against Ellenberger, if necessary. “The Immortal” has nice head movement, good takedown defense, and a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, both on and off his back. His submission defense, however, is questionable, as 10 of his 14 professional mixed martial arts career losses have been due to tapout. The 35 year old has a powerful top game and works a heavy ground and pound. When off his back, he is capable of pulling off some excellent sweeps and reversals. On the feet, Brown likes to use his vicious knees and elbows, especially from inside the clinch, a position in which he is often dominant, due to his background in Muay Thai. The Ohio native calls himself a “technical brawler” which I too is very appropriate for his style, as he loves to turn fights into brawls but is also accurate with his shots. Brown is very confident in his hands, and is always looking to end the fight with them. He owns solid uppercuts and works fantastic hooks, both to the head and body. Jake Ellenberger (30-11 MMA, 9-7 UFC) is coming off a unanimous decision loss against former Strikeforce welterweight champion Tarec Saffiedine six months ago and is 1-5 in his last six Octagon appearances. This is “make or break” time for “The Juggernaut” and he is expected to leave it all inside the Octagon in an effort to get his hand raised and save his job. “The Juggernaut” is a talented wrestler who was the assistant wrestling coach for the University of Nebraska. He is far from the best wrestler in the division, but gets the job done. Ellenberger works good takedowns, when deciding to take the fight to the mat, and when there, works a heavy top game with some solid ground and pound. His submission game is on point, too, as he owns a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The 31 year old’s conditioning has been an issue with him, though I think he will have it in check for this bout, as word is that he’s been putting in work at Kings MMA in preparation for this bout. Normally I would say it’s a question mark, but this time, I’m fairly confident in saying that Ellenberger will have enough in the tank for a full three rounds of action against Brown, should this fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Gabe’s Thoughts: I am in complete disagreement with the current betting odds, and contrary to popular opinion, I think Ellenberger should be a slight betting favorite heading into this contest. Needless to say, I think he holds a lot of value at his current offering price of +225 and is worthy of a play. I could see him defeating Brown inside the distance or on the judges’ scorecards, but I favor a decision more, as I think Ellenberger will find success in mixing things up with his wrestling and winning rounds with takedowns and top position. Both welterweights have recently been losing to top level opposition. If they were pitted against each other prior to their recent setbacks, I think the betting lines would be flipped and Ellenberger would have been a 3-to-1 favorite heading in. It is also worth noting that Ellenberger has had a new baby boy since his last fight and now feels like he has new life as a fighter. My money says that it will translate into the Octagon. Gabe’s Call: Ellenberger by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ellenberger (+225) 4u to win 9u
