UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko Date: July 23, 2016 Arena: United Center City: Chicago, IL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the United Center in Chicago, IL this Saturday (July 23, 2016) with UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko. The action packed 12-fight card is set to kick on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm ET with some preliminary match-ups, and they will keep going on FOX Sports 1 at 6pm ET, with the main card getting underway at 8pm ET on FOX. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Women’s Bantamweight bout: Holly Holm (-235) vs Valentina Shevchenko (+195) Gabe’s Thoughts: I have been going back and forth as to who is my official pick to win this five round main event contest. This is a pairing of two excellent strikers and I am expecting a great showing from both ladies. I do think that this is a close fight, so at the current betting odds, I would have to say the value sides with Shevchenko at +195. Holm is a solid finisher but I think the odds of her finishing Shevchenko are slim and her most likely way to win this fight is to outpoint her for a victory on the judges’ scorecrds. On the other hand, I think the odds of Shevchenko putting Holm away are decent. I could see her a) catching her on the feet and finishing her with strikes, b) dropping her with a strike, taking her back and submitting her or c) taking her down using wrestling, and then submitting her. Aside from that, I also think she stands a fairly good chance of winning the fight on the judges’ scorecards following five rounds of action. To conclude, I think this is close fight and I was initially going to bet Shevchenko as a live dog while picking Holm to edge it out, however I am now betting Shevchenko and officially picking her to win the contest. Gabe’s Call: Shevchenko by Submission (rear naked choke, 3:14 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Shevchenko (+195) 2u to win 3.9u Lightweight bout: J.C. Cottrell (+195) vs Michel Prazeres (-235) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is much closer than the betting odds currently suggest. In fact, I think Cottrell should be a slight -130 betting favorite into this contest; I would have said higher, had this not been his Octagon debut, and on short notice, no less. I think he is a solid prospect and see him having a brighter future in the UFC than his Brazilian counter-part. At his current underdog price tag of +195, I think the value is with him, so I have to make a move. Gabe’s Call: Cottrell by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cottrell (+195) 2u to win 3.9u Welterweight bout: George Sullivan (-200) vs Hector Urbina (+170) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a coin-flip match-up in the UFC’s 170-pound division, so at the current betting odds, I favor Urbina for a play as his underdog tag of +170, as I think that line holds value. I expect Urbina will come out wild and likely catch Sullivan with a haymaker and put him to sleep; I see Sullivan attempting to counter by pressuring Urbina against the cage and trying to take him down. If this fight hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I would have normally said that Sullivan is slightly more likely to take the nod, but given that the fight is in Urbina’s hometown of Chicago, it could be a coin-flip even if Sullivan deserves it. Urbina will certainly have the crowd on his side and out of the two welterweights, I think he sports the better chin and is the more likely fighter to wrap things up inside the distance. He is capable of doing so by T/KO or submission, but given that Sullivan is coming off a knockout defeat, a T/KO is the more likely outcome of the two, despite the fact that Urbina owns one UFC victory by submission and none by T/KO. Gabe’s Call: Urbina by T/KO (punches, 1:04 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Urbina (+170) 2u to win 3.4u
