UFC on FOX 7 HP Pavilion, San Jose, California Saturday, April 20, 2013 Welterweight Fight: Jordan Mein vs. Matt Brown Fight Breakdown: Canadian welterweight Jordan Mein fights in the UFC for the second time in five weeks as he takes a short notice fight against surging veteran Matt Brown that will open the UFC on FOX 7 main card. Mein is a -365 favorite (bet $365 to win $100) at 5Dimes Sportsbook, while Brown is a +255 underdog (bet $100 to win $255). Mein (27-8) made a huge splash in his UFC debut, defeating veteran Dan Miller via first-round TKO at last month’s UFC 158 event. Mein then got the call to fight Brown on short notice after Dan Hardy was pulled from the fight, and he stepped up to accept the challenge. The 23-year-old native of Canada has a terrific record and tons of experience and is still very young in the sport. He’s won nine of his last 10 fights with the only loss coming to Tyron Woodley, and the wins coming over the lights of Marius Zaromskis, Josh Burkman, Joe Riggs, Evangelista Cyborg, and Forrest Petz, all of whom fought in the UFC or Strikeforce. Mein is an extremely vicious striker with a lethal Muay Thai attack that has led him to collect 15 T/KO victories and he also has an underrated ground game that has seen him collect seven submission victories. If there’s any hole in his game it’s his wrestling defence and he’s been exposed off his back before, but he’s been working hard on those aspects of his game and will likely have to show it off against the well-rounded veteran Brown. Brown (16-11) is on quite a roll at the moment, having won his last four fights in the UFC. The 32-year old American is one of the most durable fighters in the UFC lightweight division as he’s never been knocked out despite having fought the likes of Mike Swick, Chris Lytle and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. He’s won his last four fights in a variety of ways, as he’s used his wrestling, his submissions, his Muay Thai, and his boxing to collect two upset victories in his last four bouts. If he wants to pick up his third upset during his hot streak he will have to be at his absolute best against Mein, because Mein — even though he’s nearly a decade younger — might represent the toughest test of Brown’s career to date. Fight Prediction: This fight will be a war and could win the “Fight of the Night” at UFC on FOX 7. Expect both men to really exhibit their standup skills but Mein is just a little younger, a little faster, and a little stronger right now and I think he’ll get the better of the exchanges. Brown is tough enough that he’ll likely survive to the final bell, but at the end of 15 minutes I think Mein is going to get the decision. Adam’s Pick: Mein via decision (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I parlayed Mein at -285 because I priced him right about -300 so there was a little bit of value. Now that he’s at -365, though, I would recommend a pass as that’s a lot of juice to lay against a tough and talented fighter like Brown. Instead, take a look at betting the “Fight of the Night” prop for this fight.
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