UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko Date: July 23, 2016 Arena: United Center City: Chicago, IL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the United Center in Chicago, IL this Saturday (July 23, 2016) with UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko. The action packed 12-fight card is set to kick on UFC Fight Pass at 4pm ET with some preliminary match-ups, and they will keep going on FOX Sports 1 at 6pm ET, with the main card getting underway at 8pm ET on FOX. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Welterweight bout: Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira (-225) vs James Moontasri (+185) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is a close match-up in the UFC’s welterweight division between a pair of lightweights who have apparently decided to move up and stay at 170-pounds. At the current odds, I would have to say that this is a dog or pass situation, however I do not think there is enough value in the underdog Moontasri at this current price tag of +185 to entice me to pull the trigger on a wager. I do believe that he is the superior striker heading into this contest but it is a big question mark as to whether he will be able to keep the fight on the feet; and even on the feet, it is arguable that Oliveira packs more power and is capable of doing more damage. That said, I do think this fight will come down to whether Moontasri can keep it standing or not. I expect both fighters to have their moments but ultimately think the Brazilian gets his hand raised here more times than not. I do think he should be favored to win, but at the current odds, I think this is a fight worth skipping. Gabe’s Call: Moontasri by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Heavyweight bout: Dmitry Smolyakov (-160) vs Luis Henrique (+140) Gabe’s Thoughts: Smolyakov is making his promotional debut in this contest against Henrique, who is 0-1 inside the Octagon. The Brazilian made his UFC debut against Francis Ngannou earlier this year and outwrestled Ngannou in the first round, but unfortunately suffered a knockout early in the second. I think his best route to victory would be to take Smolyakov into deep waters and attempt to finish him in the second or third rounds, as he has never been outside of the first round in his professional mixed martial arts career. I think there are currently too many question marks surrounding both fighters and I do believe that the current betting odds are spot on, so as far as a wager is concerned, I would recommend avoiding this one at the sportsbooks come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Smolyakov by Submission (Kimura, 3:03 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
