UFC Fight Night 91: McDonald vs Lineker Date: July 13, 2016 Arena: Denny Sanford Premier Center City: Sioux Falls, SD The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is set to make it’s inaugral trip to Sioux Falls, SD for UFC Fight Night 91: McDonald vs Lineker. This will be first official fight card under the new UFC regime. The 12-fight card is set to get going with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 5:30pm ET and continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 7pm ET. Main card action will be underway at 9pm ET, also on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my prop plays: Michael McDonald (+150) vs John Lineker Fight Goes to Decision (+235) 1u to win 2.35u McDonald by Decision (+635) .75u to win 4.76u McDonald by Submission (+472) .5u to win 2.36u I think there’s a fair chance that this fight reaches the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I favor McDonald to win the fight either by late submission or on the judges’ scorecards. I could also see Lineker taking the fight on the cards. As for a knockout, both fighters are capable of putting the other away, but I think Lineker is more likely to end the fight with his hands. I think McDonald by T/KO is realistic but I like his chances of winning by submission or decision more and see value in the lines for those props. Josh Samman (-210) vs Tim Boetsch (+190) Samman by T/KO (+225) 1u to win 2.2u I think Samman winning via T/KO is the most likely outcome to this middleweight contest. I see the TUF 18 veteran putting Boetsch with his limbs in this contest, either on the feet or in ground and pound on the mat, and quite possibly in the very first round of action. Samman is a finisher looking to return to the win column, and I see him doing so with a T/KO finish against Boetsch, who is coming off a knockout loss against Ed “Short Fuse” Herman. Oleksiy Oliynyik (-190) vs Daniel Omielanczuk (+175) Oliynyik by Submission (+165) 1u to win 1.65u I think this is the most likely outcome to this heavyweight contest. I see Oliynyik taking the fight to the mat soon after the opening bell, and I don’t expect it to take much longer after that to secure a submission for the tapout victory. Sam Alvey (-250) vs Eric Spicely (+230) Alvey by T/KO (+110) 2u to win 2.2u Alvey in Round One (+190) 1u to win 1.9u I would kind of be surprised if Alvey does not knock Spicely out in the first round of this contest. Alvey hits hard and I don’t think Spicely loves getting hit. I don’t see him doing to Alvey what Brock Lesnar did to Mark Hunt. I see Alvey catching him early and making it a short night. Scott Holtzman (-290) vs Cody Pfister (+260) Holtzman by Submission (+450) .5u to win 2.25u I see value in this line, as Pfister is poor submission defense and Holtzman is capable of submitting him. Holtzman is likely going to be looking to stand with Pfister, but there’s a possibility he could end up shooting for a takedown, as was the case in his Octagon debut against Anthony Christodolou. I recommended a bet on him to win that fight by submission, as well, and that cashed in at around +1300 if I remember correctly. The line was better for that fight and funny enough I thought his most likely outcome then was to win by submission. Here, however, I think he is slightly more likely to win on the judges’ scorecards. I think a T/KO finish is slightly less likely than a submission because of how tough Pfister is to put away. He is capable of taking punishment and has a chin on him. Devin Clark (-220) vs Alex Nicholson (+200) Clark Inside the Distance (+135) 2u to win 2.7u Clark by Submission (+523) .45u to win 2.35u Clark in Round Three (+800) .25u to win 2u Putting it simply, I think Clark either puts Nicholson away early or takes him into deep waters and drowns him there.
