TUF 23 Finale Date: July 8, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be in Las Vegas on Friday, July 8th with The Ultimate Fighter Season 23 Finale, which will be headlined by a women’s strawweight title fight between defending champion Jaonna Jedredzyk and challenger Claudia Gadelha. The main card will be underway at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with preliminary action preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET and 6:45pm ET on UFC Fight Pass prior to that. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Women’s Strawweight title bout: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-130) vs Claudia Gadelha (+110) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think we will see improved cardio from Gadelha in this match-up and she will likely get the better of the champion for the majority of the first three rounds. Jedrzejczyk will almost surely be the fresher fighter heading into the championship rounds, where I feel Gadelha will have enough in the tank to manage to hang on to see the judges’ scorecards and ultimately a decision victory; could be unanimous, split or majority. I think the rounds could either be competive or one sided, but when it’s all said and done, I like to Brazilian to get her hand raised and become the new UFC Women’s Strawweight Champion, and I expect we would see a rubbermatch after Jedrzejczyk wins one fight and Gadelha goes on to defend the title once. Gabe’s Call: Gadelha by Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Gadelha (+110) 2.5u to win 2.75u Flyweight bout: John Moraga (-170) vs Mattheus Nicolau (+150) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is more or less of a coin-flip fight, so at the current betting odds, I think the value sides with Nicolau at his underdog price tag of +150. I slightly lean towards him to get his hand raised, as well. I think he should be -120, so I’m going to take a shot on him at +150. He is the younger fighter of the two and in my opinion has the higher ceiling in the sport, while Moraga could be hitting his decline at any point, potentially starting with this match-up. This is a “dog or pass” situation in my eyes, and ultimately I am opting to take a stab on the underdog. Gabe’s Call: Nicolau by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Nicolau (+150) 1u to win 1.5u
