UFC 199: Rockhold vs Bisping Date: June 4, 2016 Arena: The Forum City: Los Angeles, CA Lightweight bout: Dustin Poirier (-180) vs Bobby Green (+170) Fight Breakdown: Dustin Poirier takes on Bobby Green to kick off the Pay Per View main card for UFC 199, and Poirier is the favorite to win at -180 ($180 to win $100) while Green is the betting underdog at +170 ($100 to win $170) at Several Bookmakerss. Dustin Poirier (19-4 MMA, 11-3 UFC) is coming off a big unanimous decision win over Joe Duffy at UFC 195 five months ago, which put him at three in a row in the UFC’s 155-pound division, and he will be aiming to make it four this evening against Green. Poirier’s striking used to be average-at-best, but he has made great improvement in the department, which has been evident from fight to fight. The 27-year-old is a southpaw who possesses a nice straight left and likes to look for his power punch, which is the over-hand left. “The Diamond” is a tough fighter who has a lot of heart, as was evident in his latest Octagon outing against Duffy, in which he survived a broken nose and very rough first round to come back and win the second and third to earn the unanimous nod from the judges at cage-side. He is a talented grappler, owning a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and always looking for the finish. Training out of American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL., Poirier has improved cardio at 155-pounds and I expect he will have enough in the tank for a 15-minute war against So Cal’s very own Green, should this scrap see it’s way to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. Bobby Green (21-9-1 NC MMA, 10-7-1 UFC) last saw action at UFC Fight Night 57 about a year and a half ago where he dropped a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards to Brazilian Muay Thai specialist Edson Barboza, snapping an eight fight winning streak that included wins over the likes of Josh Thomson, James Krause, Jacob Volkmann and Matt Ricehouse, respectively. Injuries have kept him sidelined but he is now ready to get back in the Octagon and ultimately in the win column at 155-pounds by taking out American Top Team’s Poirier. Green jumped into the mixed martial arts pool with both feet over eight ago. At 21-years-old, he saw it as an avenue to support his baby son. He won his first fight via knockout in the third round, and never looked back. The Strikeforce veteran, while a little flat-footed in his stand-up, has many tools in his striking arsenal. He also has a very good chin and excellent defense on the feet. Though he leaves his hands down, he manages to easily get out of the way of punches. He is great with the shoulder-roll, and has some Anderson Silva-esque moves, in that sense. However, that could only work for so long, as was obviously evident with Chris Weidman’s knockout of the aforementioned Silva. “King” is very active on the feet and mixes things up quite well, as he likes to dish out a heavy volume of strong kicks and punches from all angles. He is a fast athlete who likes to move quickly and put the pressure on his opponents, as he is confident in his gas tank and will undoubtedly be able to go the three round distance without fading, despite coming off an extended layoff. Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think this is more-or-less a coin-flip match-up, and because Green is coming off an extended layoff and a loss while Poirier is riding hot on an impressive three fight winning streak, I lean towards “The Diamond” to get his hand raised, but as for a play, I think the value is with Green at the underdog price of +170. Gabe’s Call: Poirier by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Green (+170) 1.5u to win 2.55u
