UFC 199: Rockhold vs Bisping 2 Date: June 4, 2016 Arena: The Forum City: Inglewood, CA The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is going back to Cali for UFC 199: Rockhold vs Bisping 2 in Inglewood. The night of action features 13 bouts, culminating with a five round middleweight title showdown. Preliminary card action gets underway at 6:15pm ET on UFC Fight Pass and 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with the main card kicking off on pay-per-view at 10 pm ET. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my Over/Under Totals: Featherweight bout: Brian Ortega (-265) vs Clay Guida (+245) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was hoping to get a good price on Ortega so I can make a play on him in this contest. I think he should be a -180 betting favorite and I would have played him at -150 or better. I do like him in this match-up, however, at the current odds, I believe there is value in the underdog Guida at his price tag of +245. I see this fight as a dog or pass situation, and I’m going to opt to pass as far as a striaght up play on either fighter is concerned. Instead, I’m going to take the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +170, as I think Ortega finishes this fight in under a round and a half more often than not, should he find himself on the winning end of things. A good hedge would be Guida by Decision +279, as I don’t see “The Carpenter” winning this fight any other way. Gabe’s Call: Ortega by Submission (triangle choke, 3:01 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+173) 1u to win 1.73u Middleweight bout: Elvis Mutapcic (-155) vs Kevin Casey (+135) Gabe’s Thoughts: I see this fight as a “dog or pass” situation and I ultimately pass on making a straight play on the underdog Casey. He will have the hometown advantage heading into this contest, as well as an advantage in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. I slightly lean towards Casey in this 185-pound contest and do see a bit of value in him at the current odds, however I think the safer play is the Total of 2.5 rounds at +110, as I see this fight going over two and a half rounds more often than not. I see the majority of this contest playing out on the feet, and while both middleweights have finishing prowess, they are also both resilient and I believe will be tough to put away. Despite being at a general striking advantage, I see Casey having his moments in this fight and possibly landing the more significant strikes. Plus mixing in some takedowns and some pressure against the cage, I do feel he is a comfortable lean here. Gabe’s Call: Casey by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (+110) 1u to win 1.1u
