Last week, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the main card of UFC Fight Night 88 at Several Bookmakers. A line was separately released for the bantamweight bout between Aljamain Sterling and Bryan Caraway. Today, he released the odds for the remaining bouts on the card. Those include a showdown between top 10 female bantamweights Sara McMann and Jessica Eye. Both fighters are coming into this bout on the heels of disappointing 2015 campaigns. Each suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in their careers. McMann dropped a majority decision to reigning bantamweight champion Miesha Tate, and then was stopped by Amanda Nunes in August of last year. Eye fell to Tate and Julianna Pena by decision. Despite their standing in the division, a third loss would be crippling to any future title hopes, and could even result in a release from the promotion. UFC Fight Night 88 also features three newcomers to the Octagon. At lightweight, Abel Trujillo will welcome Jordan Rinaldi to the UFC. Rinaldi replaces Carlos Diego Ferreira, who failed a drug test leading up to this bout. Rinaldi holds a win over Dennis Bermudez early in his career, and was a competitor on TUF Live, where he was bounced by Joe Proctor. Undefeated Brazilian middleweight Alberto Uda makes his UFC debut against Jake Collier after compiling a 9-0 record in Brazil. During that span, he picked up wins over UFC veterans Thiago Perpetuo and Richardson Moreira. The final debut belongs to heavyweight Adam Milstead. Since dropping his pro debut back in 2011, Milstead has gone 7-0 with seven stoppages. He’ll face one-time UFC vet Chris de la Rocha. The only other bout on the card is a lightweight battle between a pair of strikers. Once upon a time, Erik Koch was scheduled to face Jose Aldo for the UFC featherweight title. The bout was cancelled due to an Aldo injury, then Koch was sidelined for over a year with injuries of his own. After coming back, he’s never been able to regain his form, losing three of four. His bout against Shane Campbell will be his first UFC appearance in more than two years following another rash of injuries. The lines for each of these fights will be released at Several Bookmakers. Take a look at the full opening odds for UFC Fight Night 88 below: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 9pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 7pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: It doesn’t matter where this line ends up, it’s a dog or pass type of bout. Jessica Eye has a decent striking advantage and is the more effective fighter late in bouts, but is prone to mental lapses. If she suffers a few of them here, McMann could easily put together a couple of takedowns and control rounds of this bout from top position. I lean slightly towards Eye because I think she’s still got more motivation to get back to the top of the division than 35-year-old McMann, but it’s far from a confident pick. Jordan Rinaldi is the type of grinding fighter who can make things difficult for Abel Trujillo if he can escape round one without suffering too much damage. The problem for him is that I don’t think he’s going to be able to do that. Rinaldi has been stopped by Joe Proctor (on TUF) and James Moontasri (in RFA). Those two are the closest opposition he’s faced to Abel Trujillo, and I’d consider them a step below. Alberto Uda doesn’t look like much of an athlete, and he’s not. There isn’t a ton of speed to his game or fluidity to his movement, but he manages to get the job done. Uda seems to have crafted his game well to suit his body, he’s a tall middleweight with a long reach, and he uses a lot of long punches and front kicks to control distance. Once inside he uses his height well for leverage, and is able to get off some good knees. He also has a pretty solid go-to tall guy takedown of an outside trip. His defense is a concern, as he also exhibits some classic “tall guy defense” but seems to have a decent chin. Luckily for Uda, Collier has the same problem as him (defense), but a much worse chin and nothing to fall back on if he does get cracked. To me, Collier has been one of the most disappointing fighters to enter the UFC in the past couple of years, and I think this will conclude his run. Remember when Erik Koch knocked out Francisco Rivera and Raphael Assuncao in back-to-back fights. In hindsight, those wins looks even better now than they did then… the only problem is both guys were bantamweights fighting at featherweight, and now Koch is fighting at lightweight. His power hasn’t carried up that well, and he’s fighting a better technical striker. Koch also hasn’t landed a takedown since his WEC debut. Oh yeah, he’s also coming off a two-year layoff and more injuries heading into this fight. Shane Campbell won’t be an underdog here, will he? He will? Okay. Let’s do that. I didn’t get a chance to comment on the Sterling/Caraway fight when that was released, so I’ll do it now. Sterling is a bit overpriced. I expect him to win because he’s the better wrestler in this fight, but I’m not sure he’s a better submission artist than Caraway (certainly good enough to avoid any real sub danger unless he has his back taken though), and his striking is still a major work in progress (whereas Caraway just outstruck Eddie Wineland). It’s a much more interesting fight than people are giving it credit for, and while I do side with Sterling, I’m not laying over -400 on him. If I play this one, it’s going to have to be a prop. Adam Milstead is a better athlete than Chris de la Rocha, I don’t think there’s much question about that. The real question about him is what happens when he actually gets into a fight. The same could be said about de la Rocha as well though. Both heavyweights haven’t gone up against much opposition, and even their lone loss came within the first round. This is a crapshoot where Milstead likely gets to de la Rocha’s chin first, but he’s wound so tight with his striking that I would expect him to gas after the first round if he doesn’t get the quick finish. Anything over +200 on de la Rocha is worth a shot to me.