A pair of hot prospects in a division suddenly teeming with them will occupy the top spot on UFC Fight Night 88. Undefeated bantamweights Thomas Almeida and Cody Garbrandt will put their perfect records on the line on Sunday, May 29th as the Octagon returns to Las Vegas for the Fox Sports 1 card. While this will be the first time either Almeida or Garbrandt headlines a UFC card, they will have some support in the form of former bantamweight champion Renan Barao. The Nova Uniao product makes the move up to featherweight for the first time in the UFC to take on Jeremy Stephens. The betting lines for those two bouts were released previously at Several Bookmakers. Almeida opened as a sizable -260 favorite (bet $260 to win $100) over Garbrandt, but money has come in on the Team Alpha Male fighter since. The line has dropped all the way down to -160 for Almeida with the comeback of +140 (bet $100 to win $140) on Garbrandt. The underdog has similarly seen action in the co-main event. Barao opened at -265 with Stephens at +185, and the line now sits at -185/+160. Those two bouts will be joined on the card by a welterweight showdown between former Strikeforce welterweight champion Tarec Saffiedine and Rick Story. The rest of the main card has a focus on action. Aging, but rising, middleweight Vitor Miranda will face Chris Camozzi, a pair of talented Strikeforce vets who have gone opposite directions in weight meet at 170, as former light heavyweight Lorenz Larkin squares off with former lightweight Jorge Masvidal. The opening bout of the main card may be defense-optional, as Paul Felder and Josh Burkman’s chins could be put to the test early and often. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the main card bouts of UFC Fight Night 88 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 9pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: Tarec Saffiedine is certainly a more skilled striker than Rick Story, but when you’re capable of losing a round to Jake Ellenberger in 2016 just based on him landing the only significant strike of a five-minute period, it’s nearly impossible to trust you against a high-pressure fighter like Rick Story. There are few fighters in MMA who seem to be as consistently undervalued as Rick Story, and I think this could be another spot to take advantage of that. If Chris Camozzi turns this into a wrestling match, he’s got a decent shot against Vitor Miranda, but if he accepts a kickboxing bout (or if Miranda’s improved takedown defense forces it) that heavily favors the Brazilian. Camozzi is a good striker, but Miranda is sharper and presents a ton more danger. I think he will be able to keep the fight on the feet and outpoint Camozzi, but he’ll have to be careful not to spend too much time with his back on the cage or allow Camozzi to fool the judges with volume. Jorge Masvidal is simultaneously fun and infuriating to watch as both a fan and bettor. He’s got all the skills, but so often is unwilling to pull the trigger on them. One area that his skill often shines through is with his defense, but unfortunately that can lead to him being a bit too relaxed and getting caught. I think Lorenz Larkin’s willingness to vary the target of his offensive attack will be essential here, as he doesn’t need to rely on clipping Masvidal, as he can just rack up points kicking to the legs and body as Masvidal refuses to fire back. If Masvidal attempts to take the fight to the mat here, his biggest advantage, I think Larkin’s size and takedown defense will be enough to stop him. I’m hoping the usual Masvidal love comes in from bettors, because I like Larkin to take a decision here and will play him at + money. Paul Felder hasn’t impressed me nearly as much as he seems to impress other people. He’s got an excellent chin, good cardio, and solid striking, but terrible striking defense and despite winning his last bout by submission, not much of a grappling game. Burkman is much better on the ground, but equally shaky with his striking defense and is certainly more on the backside of his career than Felder. I definitely don’t want to back Felder here, but without a bigger number on Burkman, I’ll just have to pass in what I expect to be a competitive striking bout.