Big Marley’s UFC on FOX 31 DraftKings Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
|Significant Strikes||+0.5 Pts|
|Fight Conclusion Bonuses|
|1st Round Win||+90 Pts|
|2nd Round Win||+70 Pts|
|3rd Round Win||+45 Pts|
|4th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|5th Round Win||+40 Pts|
|Decision Win||+30 Pts|
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that will be the last UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We are back to having smaller prize pools for this event but there is still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice top prize are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games. Here are a few plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is almost always the best fight to get into cash games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round fight usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can stack the main event here as well, but I think Kevin Lee is the must play of the two. He is a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he is going to score highly and according to Vegas he has a 77% chance of winning. He also scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he have a high floor, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card as well. This is where I will be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP play of the week – Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a lot of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this fight is almost a PK fight on the betting odds now. Usually when that happens we see the ownership on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s ownership will go down because of that and that is what makes him a good GPP play. Gordon strikes at the highest pace on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even need a finish to score 100+ points and that is why I like him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but if he does win then he should score well.
Underdog play of the week – Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he is only +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I love the value we are getting there, and I think Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to be one of the most popular underdogs on the card, but it is chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not only would he have the win, but he would score highly as well. I think if he does win this fight then he ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favorite underdog of the week for that reason.
Fade of the week – Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I think he loses, I am actually picking him to win a Unanimous Decision here. I am fading him because he is $9.3k and with his fighting style I don’t see him getting more than 10x that salary. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his career and he has scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. If he scores around that area again in this fight, then that pretty much kills your chances at winning a GPP because the other guys in that $9k range likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 47-28 for +169.81u (+$16,981) since May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 weeks!)