The UFC is set to make their first trip to one of kickboxing’s hotspots on Sunday, May 8th, as UFC Fight Night 87 will go live from Rotterdam, Netherlands. Most MMA fans are at least somewhat familiar with the rich history of Dutch kickboxing — the winners of all but four of the 19 K-1 World Grand Prix have been Dutch — and we have seen several of those names crossover to MMA (or vice versa). One of the most notable names to find success in both sports will be headlining UFC Fight Night 87. Alistair Overeem, who captured the K-1 WGP title in 2010 will take on former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski in a bout that could determine the next contender for the heavyweight title. Overeem brings a three-fight win streak into the bout, including a KO of former champion Junior dos Santos in his last outing. Arlovski just had a six-fight winning streak snapped at the hands of current challenger Stipe Miocic. There are only two other Dutch fighters on the UFC roster, and both are on this card as well. Stefan Struve is in the co-main event against ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, and Germaine de Randamie takes on UFC newcomer Anna Elmose on the main card. While the Dutch contingent isn’t that large, there is a massive European presence on the card. Every fight except for the opening bout of the evening (which was made just this week as a late replacement) has at least one fighter from the region. Odds have already been released for five of the bouts on the Sunday matinee card, and after some early movement sit as follows: Alistair Overeem (-225) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+185) Stefan Struve (-190) vs. Antonio Silva (+165) Albert Tumenov (-170) vs. Gunnar Nelson (+150) Rustam Khabilov (-210) vs. Chris Wade (+175) Nick Hein (-220) vs. Jon Tuck (+180) MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the full odds for UFC Fight Night 87 today at Several Bookmakers. Check out all the opening lines below: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 2pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 12pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 10:30am ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: First, let it be known that any time MMA happens early enough in the day that I don’t have to leave my house and do things, that’s a good day. These Sunday afternoon cards are awesome, and I look forward to them being a continued fixture in the UFC schedule. Now, as far as the new lines go: When I saw this fight, I originally thought it was a late replacement bout given Anna Elmose’s relative inexperience. This was the originally booked fight though. Perhaps given some of the women who have come into the UFC with limited experience and found success, I’m judging Elmose’s shot in this bout a bit hastily, but I don’t like the matchup for her. On top of being a better striker, de Randamie has a 7″ height advantage, and the reach differential here will be massive as well. Elmose has far more power in her hands than most female bantamweights, but even if she gets inside she’ll have to deal with de Randamie’s clinch game, and I just don’t see it going well for her. Up to this point, Nikita Krylov has always been an underdog or had basically pick em lines in his UFC fights. He’s now going to be a decent favorite. That boggles my mind. Despite all of the things Krylov still hasn’t grasped in MMA, he’s gone out against his last two opponents (combined record of 25-3-1 heading into their bouts with him) and scored a pair of victories in under 4 minutes combined. One thing Krylov is definitely good at is being active, and against a fighter like Francimar Barroso who has an anemic offensive output, that may be enough. On the other hand, even though Barroso isn’t known for his submission skills, one takedown by him might be enough to find a submission through Krylov’s sloppy defense. I’m going to stay away from this one unless Krylov gets close to even money or the public just goes nuts and Barroso ends up in excess of +200. This is a step down for Karolina Kowalkiewicz, no? Heather Clark is better than most gave her credit for heading into TUF, but her best discernible skill is the ability to keep a high pace. That’s something Kowalkiewicz excels at as well, but does it with far more technical striking. I only think this fight ends up on the ground if Kowalkiewicz wants it there as well, as her takedown defense looked excellent against a superior wrestler in Randa Markos. The chances of a finish are slim, but Kowalkiewicz should emerge with a clear decision. Here’s the problem with the UFC’s massive roster: Magnus Cedenblad hasn’t fought since 2014 and Garreth McLellan has fought twice since then, but I have zero recollection of any moments in either of McLellan’s fights. …And after a quick trip to Fight Pass, I remember that McLellan can’t wrestle a lick. That’s going make things tough for him against Magnus Cedenblad who is a more accurate, longer striker, far more dangerous on the ground, and should be able to take McLellan down if he feels the need. I expect that Cedenblad will be able to find a choke in a scramble at some point, and I’ll be on the lookout for that submission prop. Cabral/Madadi is an intriguing fight. Both guys want to be on the ground and both are quite skilled there, but have very different games once there. Madadi is the wrestler, while Cabral is more of a straight Jiu-Jitsu player. Cabral has tried to combat his wrestling deficiency by dropping down to lightweight, and he looked much better in grappling exchanges against Johnny Case in his last fight. Still, Madadi will have a wrestling advantage here, and I think he can avoid being submitted from top position. On the feet, he’ll be more aggressive and likely score that way. For those two reasons, I lean towards Madadi to take a decision in this fight, and at a dog price I’ll take him here. Kyoji Horiguchi is buried on this card for some reason. I know the UFC is trying to do the whole ‘featured Fight Pass prelim’ but putting him here isn’t going to draw anyone into the platform. It’s likely that Horiguchi will make his way back to a title shot at some point, and the UFC should make an effort to get him known so that fans aren’t clueless to who he is like at his UFC 186 title shot. As far as this fight, Neil Seery is always tough, but he’s going to be facing an enormous speed disadvantage here. If he can turn this into a brawl, he’ll have a shot, but if it becomes a range striking battle, Horiguchi will make him look each of his 36 years. Leon Edwards took this bout as a replacement, but he’ll have had over a month to prepare, so that shouldn’t be too much of an issue. The bigger problem for Edwards will be how much his takedown defense has improved since he’s facing another wrestler. Edwards’ record has been very simple, when he gets taken down he loses, when he avoids takedowns he wins. As much as I’d like to be confident in Edwards, I can’t until I see him stuff takedowns from a decent wrestler. I won’t be betting Waters unless the price gets into the same range Dominique Steele got to against Danny Roberts, but I can’t see myself throwing Edwards into a parlay either. With Paddy Holohan retiring two weeks before this fight was set to take place, Yuta Sasaki has very limited time to get ready for Willie Gates. I don’t expect it to make too much of a difference in this bout though, as it’s going to go one of two ways: Either Sasaki hops on Gates’ back and chokes him out quickly, or Gates punches him into the following week. This could be an opportunity to look at an under bet in a flyweight bout, which are usually generously priced.