UFC on FUEL TV 9: April 6, 2013 Ericsson Globe Arena in Stockholm, Sweden UFC Featherweight Contender Diego Brandao (-215) Profile: Since winning The Ultimate Fighter 14 featherweight tournament at the end of 2011, Diego Brandao (15-8) has split a pair of decisions in the featherweight division with a loss to Darren Elkins at UFC 146 and a win over Joey Gambino at UFC 153. He is a BJJ black belt and trains out of Jackson’s MMA in Albuquerque, New Mexico. In the past few years, the 25-year-old has developed a solid stand-up game that when combined with his slick ground game makes him a dangerous opponent in the deep featherweight division. UFC Featherweight Contender Pablo Garza (+165) Profile: Pablo Garza (12-3) started his career in 2007 with great success. He would spend the first three years on the independent circuits, amassing an impressive 9-0 record. In 2010, the featherweight made his big show debut at WEC 51, losing to Chinese star Zhang Tiequan in the first round via guillotine choke. When the WEC folded, the 29-year-old Garza would join the cast of The Ultimate Fighter 12 but failed to make it past the preliminary round. At the TUF 12 Finale, Garza took part in the first featherweight fight in UFC history, and he made it memorable with an incredible flying knee knockout of Fredson Paixao in the first minute of their bout. Astonishingly, Garza followed up his Knockout of the Night with a Submission of the Night via flying triangle choke on Yves Jabouin. But after a meteoric start in the UFC, Garza dropped two fights in a row against Dustin Poirier and Dennis Bermudez. He then rebounded with a unanimous decision victory against Mark Hominick, pushing his opponent into retirement. Now, Garza is looking to string together a new winning streak and continue building his reputation as an exciting and explosive fighter. Opening UFC on FUEL TV 9 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Brandao a solid -215 favorite (bet $215 to win $100) while Garza opened as a +165 underdog (bet $100 to win $165) at Several Bookmakers sportsbook. Brandao was the first Brazilian winner of TUF and seems to still be living off that achievement, as he has not accomplished much in the UFC so far with a mediocre 1-1 record. He showed great potential and finishing ability on TUF, and many MMA bettors probably still have that vision in their minds when they think about him. The problem is, Brandao has yet to live up to that potential in his last two fights, and he will now be facing an opponent with 6-inch height and 4-inch reach advantages. Garza is called the “Scarecrow” because of his lanky appearance, and he will pose matchup problems for the much smaller Brandao, who will likely be looking for his first finish since submitting Bermudez for the TUF title. The longer this fight goes, the more it figures to favor the larger Garza due to his experience and ability to wear down Brandao over three rounds. However, Garza has been submitted twice among his three losses, so that’s the danger in backing him, especially since Brandao has 13 finishes.
