UFC Fight Night 85 Date: March 19, 2016 Arena: Brisbane Entertainment Centre City: Brisbane, Australia Lightweight bout: Johnny Case (-110) vs Jake Matthews (-110) Fight Breakdown: The main card for UFC Fight Night 85 will be feauturing a barn burner in the lightweight division between surging prospects Johnny “Hollywood” Case and Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews. This 155-pound contest is currently a coin-flip at the betting window, with both fighters beng -110 ($110 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. Johnny “Hollywood” Case(18-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is currently riding an impressive four fight winning streak inside the Octagon and 14 wins in total. He is a talented striker and knockout artist who owns 12 of his 22 professional mixed martial arts victories by way of T/KO. He also owns a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and has a solid submission game, both offensively and defensively, owning six career victories by way of tapout. Case has good footwork and a solid kicking game, having a variety of kicks in his arsenal. He has some nice leg kicks, both inside and outside, and he likes to go hard to the body, as well. His takedown defense is average, but he does a good job of scrambling and working his way back to his feet. “Hollywood” mixes it up well on the feet and puts together some effective combinations, including a nice 1-2. He has great timing, accuracy and distance-management. The 26-year-old does a good job of moving in and out, landing shots without taking much damage in return; his striking defense is is noteworthy. Case has a solid jab which he often likes to lead with, and he throws some good shots to the body, as well. The Iowa native has decent takedowns and is effective from top position when finding himself there, whether he takes the fight there or manages a reversal. He has great top control, transitons well on the mat and works a vicious ground and pound attack, doing a good job of employing his elbows. Training out of Power MMA in Arizona, “Hollywood” generally has good cardio, though he will be at somewhat of a disadvantage in the department heading into this contest against Matthews. Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews (9-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) bounced back to the win column with a come from behind TKO (doctor stoppage) victory over the Mexican Akbarh Arreola. He is a talented grappler who owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, having finished four of his nine opponents by submission. His takedowns solid, especially his double-leg, which is his preffered takedown and does a nice job of hitting it in the center of the cage. The 21-year-old is strong inside the clinch and does a very good job of pressuring opponents against the cage, as well as on the mat. He is active and effective from top position with both submissions and strikes, doing an excellent job of incorporating his brutal elbows. He remains heavy and pressures well from top position and does a good job of transitioning positions and taking the back of his opponents. “The Celtic Kid” has average striking at best, but it is an area which he has been making improvements, though he did not look good on the feet in his last outing against Arreola, as he got hurt (with strikes) and nearly finished in the first stanza. Matthews throws a solid left hook, and often likes to lead with it. The uppercut is another strike he likes to lead with. The Australian’s over-hand is decent, too, as are his leg-kicks. He is a well conditioned athlete who will have the edge in cardio heading into this contest and will be ready for a full 15-minutes of action, if necessary. Gabe’s Call: Case by Submission (guillotine choke, 3:42 round 2) Gabe’s Thoughts: Case has the edge on the feet in this 155-pound contest and Matthews has the edge on the mat. I think this fight comes down to who implements their game plan successfully for at least two out of three rounds, and I like Case’s chances of doing so more than the Australian’s. I think Case’s advantage on the feet is bigger than Matthews’ advantage on the mat, considering the fact that “Hollywood” is a solid grappler in his own right with a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Should this fight end inside the distance, I think more than likely it will be Case getting his hand raised, and I believe an outcome of T/KO and submission are both realistic. Should the fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I favor him to have done enough over the course of three rounds to take the nod there, as well; though, if the fight is close, I fear there could be some hometown cooking. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Case (-110) 2.2u to win 2u
