UFC 196 Date: March 5, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Las Vegas, NV this Saturday night (March 5, 2016) with UFC 195: McGregor vs Diaz. The action-packed 12-fight card is set to get going with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on Fox Sports 1 at 8pm ET. Main card action will be underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Welterweight bout: Conor McGregor (-450) vs Nate Diaz (+400) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think McGregor is being dramatically over-valued at the sportsbooks heading into this contest and I see a lot of value in the underdog Diaz at his current offering price of +400. I think this is a very close fight, and as for my official pick, I go back and forth but I really like the Stockton, CA fighters chance of scoring the upset. I can see Diaz winning this fight submission or on the judges’ scorecards, and I think both outcomes are very realistic. Outside of Jose Aldo, I believe Diaz is the best fighter he has faced and I think it will be a true test for him. One he can pass, but not 10 out of 10 times; likely not even 7 out of 10 times. Gabe’s Call: Diaz by Submission (guillotine choke, 2:13 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Diaz (+400) 2.5u to win 10u Light Heavyweight bout: Gian Villante (+175) vs Ilir Latifi (-210) Gabe’s Thoughts: Both of these 205-pounders are very capable of ending the fight on the feet, and Villante is aware of this, so I think he will play it smart and use his strikes at range to outpoint the Lebanese fighter for three rounds of action to pick up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I don’t think this will be the slugest everybody is expecting and hoping to be. I think Villante goes in there with a smart game plan and leaves with the W. At his current underdog tag of +175, I do favor him for a wager. Gabe’s Call: Villante by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Villante (+175) 2u to win 3.5u Women’s Bantamweight bout: Amanda Nunes (-125) vs Valentina Shevchenko (+105) Gabe’s Thoughts: Shevchenko has the bigger heart and stronger will, and I believe that’s what it will come down to in this contest. I see her getting the better of Nunes and likely breaking her once fatigue sets in for the Brazilian. There are several routes to victory for Shevchenko in this contest and I think she should be the betting favorite heading in, so I like her for a play at her current offering price of +105. Gabe’s Call: Shevchenko by T/KO (punches, 4:29 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Shevchenko (+105) 4u to win 4.2u Welterweight bout: Brandon Thatch (-320) vs Siyar Bahadurzada (+260) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this 170-pound contest is a lot closer than the current betting odds suggest and like Bahadurzada for a value play at his current underdog price of +260. I think this fight plays out on the feet, where I think Bahadurzada either puts Thatch away or takes a decision on the scorecards. The thing that makes me pull the trigger on this play rather than passing on betting the fight is the fact that Bahadurzada has been taking his training more seriously than Thatch. I think Thatch has now accepted that he will not be the champion and has mentally checked out a bit. If so, Bahadurzada is the wrong opponent to step inside the cage against. Gabe’s Call: Bahadurzada by T/KO (punches, 1:07 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Bahadurzada (+260) 2u to win 5.6u Featherweight bout: Julian Erosa (-210) vs Teruto Ishihara (+175) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think Erosa lost his UFC debut and did not deserve the decision he took that evening. His opponent was cut from the promotion when it should have been him. He was lucky and sees another day inside the Octagon, and I don’t love his chances in this outing. I don’t agree with the betting odds, as I think this is a coin-flip contest, and one in which I slightly lean towards the Japanese fighter. I think he could win this fight inside the distance or on the judges’ scorecards, so I favor him for a straight-up value play at his current offering price of +175 Gabe’s Call: Ishihara by T/KO (punches, 2:57 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ishihara (+175) 2u to win 3.5u
