UFC Fight Night 82 Date: February 6, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson (-150) vs Jared Rosholt (+140) Fight Breakdown: The co-main event of the evening for UFC Fight Night 82 in Las Vegas this evening will be a heavyweight contest between 39-year-old Roy “Big Country” Nelson and 29-year-old Jared Rosholt, with Nelson being a betting favorite at -150 ($150 to win $100) and Rosholt being an underdog at +140 ($100 to win $140) 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Roy “Big Country” Nelson (18-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is currently on a three fight skid and is 1-5 in his last six appearances inside the Octagon, so he has his back against the wall heading into this co-headliner. The three defeats on his current skid have come to Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett, respectively, so he’s had no easy fights. The 39-year-old is known for his hard right hand, which is a vicious weapon that has put out the likes of Matt Mitrione, Stefan Struve, Cheick Kongo, Mirko Cro Cop, Dave Herman and the aforementioned Nogueira. Nelson and his right hand are always a threat against anyone in the UFC’s heavyweight division. The Ultimate Fighter season 10 winner is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and owns five wins by way of tapout, though he has not submitted an opponent since 2006. Nelson’s cardio seems to be hit or miss, but he is generally able to tough it out for 15-minutes, even if he is gassed. Jared Rosholt (20-3-1 MMA, 4-1-1 UFC) last saw action at UFC 193 nearly three months ago, where he took a unanimous decision victory over the young veteran heavyweight Stefan Struve, making it three in a row for himself inside the Octagon, including a pair of unanimous decision wins over Josh Copeland and Timothy Johnson, respectively. The 29-year-old is a talented NCAA Division I wrestler who competed for Oklahoma State University and holds the school record for most wins by a heavyweight. After his college career, the three-time All-American decided he was not done competing at a high level, so he followed his older brother, UFC veteran Jake Rosholt’s footsteps and made the transition into mixed martial arts. Rosholt’s striking used to be poor but has improved and is still a work in progress; he has developed decent hands, but he generally uses his striking to set up his takedowns. His footwork is okay, but his striking defense is not very good, though I think that is another area he has been focusing on, and I expect him to have put more attention to it for this bout specifically. Rosholt’s conditioning is similar to Nelson’s, as it is hit or miss and he appears to fade in the third stanza, where opponents have previously had opportunities to capitalize and hurt him, though not successful in putting him away to earn a victory. Gabe’s Call: Nelson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think there is a very good chance this fight goes over 1.5 rounds, so I think there is value in the Total at it’s current offering price of -142 and I favor it for a wager. Gabe’s Recommended Play: Nelson/Rosholt Over 1.5 rounds (-142) 4.26u to win 3u
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