UFC on FOX 18 Date: January 30, 2016 Arena: Prudential Center City: Newark, NJ The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Newark, NJ for the seventh time in promotional history with UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader. The action packed 13-fight card kicks off at 8pm ET on FOX, with preliminary action preceding it on FOX Sports 1 at 5pm ET and Fight Pass at 3:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Welterweight bout: Bryan Barbarena (+365) vs Sage Northcutt (-450) Gabe’s Thoughts: Barbarena is taking this fight on short notice, replacing undefeated prospect Andrew Holbrook, who was forced to withdraw from the contest due to injury. That bout was scheduled to take place at 155-pounds, but due to the short notice nature of the bout, Barbarena and Northcutt have both agreed to compete a weight class above at 170-pounds; a division which Northcutt has competed in prior to signing with the UFC. I favor Northcutt to get his hand raised in this contest and think it is 50/50 whether he does so inside the distance or on the judges’ scorecards. That said, I do not agree with his current betting line of -450 and will not be including him in any of my parlays this Saturday night. I see this as a “dog or pass” situation and I am going to have to take a pass, as I don’t believe there is quite enough value with Barbarena to pull the trigger on a play. If he somehow reaches +500, I will throw a unit on him, but at +365, I think it’s a no-go and this is ultimately a fight to avoid come Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Northcutt by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Flyweight bout: Dustin Ortiz (-220) vs Wilson Reis (+180) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Ortiz should be a -180 betting favorite heading into this 125-pound contest, so I’m not going to make a move on him at his current offering price of -220. This as a “dog or pass” situation in which I fail to find the confidence to pull the trigger on the underdog, so I am going to pass. In my eyes, this is a fight that is best left avoided at the sportsbook this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Ortiz by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
