UFC on FOX 18 Date: January 30, 2016 Arena: Prudential Center City: Newark, NJ The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Newark, NJ for the seventh time in promotional history with UFC on FOX 18: Johnson vs Bader. The action packed 13-fight card kicks off at 8pm ET on FOX, with preliminary action preceding it on FOX Sports 1 at 5pm ET and Fight Pass at 3:30pm ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Over/Under Totals are: Middleweight bout: Kevin Casey (+145) vs Rafael Natal (-165) Gabe’s Thoughts: I was originally eyeing Casey for a play in this welterweight contest, as I thought he was a live dog, but the further I looked into the bout, the more I begun to favor the Brazilian. In short, I think Natal is going to win this fight and I believe he is going to do so via decision on the judges’ scorecards. I think their grappling cancels each other out and give the edge in striking to Natal. The biggest advantage he has in this match-up will be in Octagon experience. I think the veteran will manage to get the better of Casey over the course of three rounds to take home the victory on the judges’ scorecards. That said, I favor a play on the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -165 than I do on Natal at the same exact price. The reason for that is that In victory, I believe Natal wins via decision at least 80% of the time, and in case Casey ends up edging it out, the ticket still cashes. Gabe’s Call: Natal by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-165) 3.3u to win 2u Welterweight bout: Alexander Yakovlev (-130) vs George Sullivan (+110) Gabe’s Thoughts: I keep going back and forth as for my official pick, but I strongly favor this fight to hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I think these two battle it out for all 15-minutes of action more often than not and see betting value in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds even at the juicy asking price of -230. I think the line should be -380, so I will pull the trigger for a straight play on this one. I am in agreement with the current betting odds, as I see this as being a very close fight. I believe it will be closely contested both on the feet and on the mat, and I think we could be in for a split decision following three (likely not-so-entertaining) rounds of action. Gabe’s Call: Yakovlev by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-230) 3.45u to win 1.5u
