UFC 195 Date: January 2, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Champion (UFC) is back in Las Vegas yet again on January 2nd to kick off the 2016 calendar year with UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. The stacked 12-fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. The five-fight main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here are my Pay Per View plays: Heavyweight bout: Andrei Arlovski (+200) vs Stipe Miocic (-240) Gabe’s Thoughts: I got the line of Over 4.5 rounds at -150 but it jumped to -175 and I still see plenty of value in it to recommend it for a wager. Despite it being a heavyweight match-up, I favor it going over, and likely all the way to the judges’ scorecards for a decision. This could be a close fight or more one sided than expected, but in any case, I think it going all three rounds more often than not, with Miocic getting his hand raised more often than not. I see him grinding Arlovski against the cage, dirty boxing him there, taking him down and controling him on the mat. I think this fight hits the cards and Miocic gets the unanimous nod. I think Arlovski may take a round, but I see Stipe at least taking two out of three. An early finish in this fight is slim, I think, which is something I will rarely say about a heavyweight contest. There is a better chance of a late second round or a third round finish, which makes me really like the Over 1.5 rounds play, even at it’s current asking price of -175. Gabe’s Call: Miocic by Unanimous Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-175) 5.25u to win 3u Welterweight bout: Albert Tumenov (-260) vs Lorenz Larkin (+220) Gabe’s Thoughts: I see this as being a technical striking battle on the feet, where I think Larkin outpoints Tumenov over the course of three rounds en route to a unanimous (30-27s or 29-28s) decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think this fight is a lot closer than the betting odds suggest and personally feel Larkin should be slightly favored. At his current asking price of +220, I think he is the right side for a play here. I think his speed and volume will be his keys to victory in this match-up, as I think he is the faster fighter of the two and see him landing more than his Russian counterpart. Tumenov hits harder, but I think Larkin is too quick for him, and I think that will make the difference. Gabe’s Call: Larkin by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Larkin (+220) 3.25u to win 7.15u
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