UFC 195 Date: January 2, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Champion (UFC) is back in Las Vegas yet again on January 2nd to kick off the 2016 calendar year with UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. The stacked 12-fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. The five-fight main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my Fight Pass plays: Bantamweight bout: Joe Soto (-110) vs Michinori Tanaka (-110) Gabe’s Thoughts: Soto had a strange Octagob debut that saw him challenge UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw for his title, because his original scheduled opponent Renan Barao fainted in the sauna while cutting weight for the fight. He was pulled from his bout against Anthony Birchak and was placed into the title fight, where he was oustruck for five rounds until ultimately being stopped by strikes in the fifth. His next outing inside the Octagon saw him take on the opponent he was originally meant to fight, Birchak, and he lost the bout via first round knockout. Now 0-2 in the UFC, he will be looking for his first Octagon victory against Japan’s Tanaka, who is 1-1 in the promotion. Tanaka defeated Roland Delorme via unanimous decision in his UFC debut and lost a controversial split decision to Kyung Ho Kang in his next and latest outing. Having his first taste of professional mixed martial arts career, Tanaka is eager to return to the win column and he will look to do so in impressive fashion against Soto. I believe Tanaka is the better fighter of the two heading into this 135-pound affair and believe he has the brighter future in the promotion. I see Tanaka finding success in taking Soto down to the mat, where I see him dominating him and eventually securing a submission for the finish. If he fails to put Soto away, I think he will handily pick up unanimous 30-27 scores from the judges’ at Octagon-side. I think Tanaka should be a -400 betting favorite heading into this match-up, so I think he holds a world of value at his current coin-flip price of -110. Gabe’s Call: Tanaka by Technical Submission (rear naked choke, 4:55 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Tanaka (-110) 5.5u to win 5u Welterweight bout: Edgar Garcia (+140) vs Sheldon Westcott (-160) Gabe’s Thoughts: I do not agree with the current betting odds for this 170-pound bout and feel they should be flipped around, as I think Edgar should be a -160 betting favorite heading into this fight. Needless to say, I think there’s enough value in him to warrant a play here, and personally, I’m going to pull the trigger on it. I think Edgar is the more durable fighter of the two, with a more well-rounded skill-set. As long as he does not get finished in the first round, I think he either finishes Westcott in the second or third, or cruises to a unanimous decision win on the judges’ scorecards. Westcott’s two Octagon appearances have shown us that he has atrocious cardio. It cost him in his last fight against Pawel Pawlak. He got the better of the Pole in a lackluster first round, but gassed and got outwrestled in equally lackluster second and third rounds for a unanimous decision defeat to an inferior fighter. He lost a fight he should have won, and on January 2nd in Las Vegas, I think he loses a fight he probably should lose, falls to 0-3 inside the Octagon and ultimately receives his walking papers from the promotion. Gabe’s Call: Garcia by T/KO (punches, 4:57 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Garcia (+140) 2.25u to win 3.15u
