UFC 195 Date: January 2, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Champion (UFC) is back in Las Vegas yet again on January 2nd to kick off the 2016 calendar year with UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. The stacked 12-fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. The five-fight main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on these parlays, or any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines are currently made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. Here is my parlay: Welterweight title bout: Robbie Lawler (-120) vs Carlos Condit (+100) Gabe’s Thoughts: Lawler will be looking to make his second consecutive welterweight title defense in this contest, coming off a fifth round knockout victory over Rory MacDonald at UFC 189 back in July, which was an instant-classic and one of the greatest fights in the history of the sport. Condit returned from an extended injury layoff seven months ago and scored a TKO win over Thiago Alves when the Brazilian was unable to answer the bell for the third round. The win put “The Natural Born Killer” back in the win column, and largely due to his popularity, earned him the next shot at Lawler and his gold. Condit trains out of high altitude Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuqurque, NM and has tremendous cardio, so I expect he will have enough gas in the tank for a full 25-minutes of action against the champ. He is a well-rounded mixed martial artist who possesses excellent striking skills and is a threat with all limbs. His wrestling is not very good, but he has a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game and is quite effective off his back. “Ruthless” trained out of the Pat Miletich camp (Miletich Fighting Systems) in his Iowa hometown throughout most of his career, with some time spent at Power MMA in Arizona, but since his return to the UFC with the Koscheck bout, he moved his training camp to American Top Team in Coconut Creek, FL. He has made American Top Team his real home, eventually relocating his family down to Florida, so he could spend all of his time training there, and not just be there for his training camps. The improvements he has made since switching camps has been clear as day. Lawler is a heavy handed striker with a good chin, so he isn’t afraid to mix it up. He is also a great sprawler with tremendous takedown defense, often keeping the fight where he wants it. Lawler is also a “technical brawler”. He can keep it technical and score points, or slug it out and score a knockout. The Iowa native has tremendous cardio, so I expect he will be ready for a full five rounds of action on January second, if necessary. I do in fact see this fight going the distance more often than not, which makes me like the Total of Over 4.5 rounds at -125 for a play. I see this fight playing out for all 25 minutes and think Lawler will do enough to outpoint Condit over the course of the three rounds to pick up a decision victory on the judges’ scorecards and see his second successful UFC welterweight title defense. Gabe’s Call: Lawler by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 48-47) Lightweight bout: Dustin Poirier (+160) vs Joseph Duffy (-185) Gabe’s Thoughts: I like Duffy in this match-up but I was more confident in him when the fight was originally scheduled to take place a couple of months ago. A concussion he suffered in training resulted the bout to be pulled from the card it was on and has been rebooked for this one. The reason I am not as confident in Duffy this time around is because of that concussion. He was knocked out in training, concussed and is returning to action just two short months later. I don’t like that, because if Poirier connects, he could really hurt him. That said, I do believe Duffy is the superior mixed martial artist and expect him to get the better of Poirier both on the feet and on the mat. I think this is his fight to lose, and as long as he avoids getting knocked out, I see him getting his hand raised. I would not be surprised to see him lose a close decision, either, but if this fight hits the judges’ scorecards, I think it will be Duffy getting the nod more often than not. I thought Duffy should have been a -280 favorite the first time around and was betting him at -245 before the fight was pulled. Now, I think he shoud be a -220 favorite, so at his current offering price of -185, I think he’s worth a play. I also like the Total of Over 1.5 rounds at -135, as I think there is a pretty good chance we see more than a round and a half of action when these 155-pounders square off in Las Vegas. Gabe’s Call: Duffy by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Parlays: 1) Lawler (-120) and Duffy (-185) at +182 for 2.55u to win 4.65u and 2) Lawler/Condit Over 4.5 rounds (-125) and Poirier/Duffy Over 1.5 rounds (-135) at +213 for 1.9u to win 4.05u
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