UFC 195 Date: January 2, 2016 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Champion (UFC) is back in Las Vegas yet again on January 2nd to kick off the 2016 calendar year with UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit. The stacked 12-fight card is set to kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET and televised prelims to follow on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm ET. The five-fight main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Bantamweight bout: Michael McDonald (-550) vs Masanori Kanehara (+425) Gabe’s Thoughts: “Mayday” returns to action following a two year layoff and is ready to get back into the win column by taking out Masanori Kanehara. Despite the extended layoff and coming off a loss, he is still ranked as the #5 bantamweight in the division’s rankings. He will look to hold that spot and possibly climb higher, and 2016 could very well be the year for McDonald. Kanehara was impressive in his promotional debut, taking on Alex “Bruce Leeroy” Caceres and defeating him via unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards following three rounds of action. In his next and most recent outing at UFC Fight Night 71 nearly half a year ago, the 33-year old took on Brazil’s Rani Yahya and lost the bout via controversial split decision. Following the disappointing defeat and having his first taste of Octagon defeat, he is eager to take on “Mayday” and will look to take advantage of his cage-rust. While I do agree that McDonald should be the betting favorite heading into this 135-pound contest, I think this fight is much closer than the current betting odds suggest. The truth is I think there is a good amount of value in Kanehara at his current offering price of +425 and have been going back and forth on whether I should pull the trigger on it for a wager. The reason why I was having trouble doing it and ultimately decided to pass is because I find it really tough to bet against McDonald right now. He is not fighting for the paycheck. He is fighting because he wants to fight and more importantly, win. He wants to make another run at that 135-pound strap. He is hungry, he is the better fighter and I think he gets his hand raised in this fight, whether by T/KO or decision. I think it is equally likely whether “Mayday” ends this fight by T/KO on takes it on the judges’ scorecards. I think he wins, but he is being way over-valued at his current asking price of -550. I believe this is a “dog or pass” situation, and as I said, I can’t get myself to take the dog here. I can’t blame you if you do, but personally I feel this a fight that is best left alone on January 2nd. Gabe’s Call: McDonald by Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Women’s Bantamweight bout: Justine Kish (-270) vs Nina Ansaroff (+230) Gabe’s Thoughts: Ansaroff made her promotional debut on the heels of a five fight winning streak over a year ago at UFC Fight Night 56 and was defeated by Juliana Lima by unanimous decision. Following the extended layoff, she looks to get back on track with a win by taking out promotional newcomer Kish. Kish is is coming off a knee injury and will look to remain undefeated against Ansaroff. The injury and extended layoff are concerning, and the main reason I am laying off making a play on her. I think she should be a -220 betting favorite heading into this contest, as at her current offering price of -270, I think she is best left avoided at the sportsbooks next Saturday night. Gabe’s Call: Kish by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
