MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up the betting lines for the UFC 158 preliminary bouts today at Several Bookmakers. This card is very heavily geared towards the welterweight division, and just as there are three welterweight fights on the main card, there are three more on the undercard which provide some interesting stories. There are also four Canadian fighters who will have the benefit of the home crowd behind them come Saturday night. Here are the odds for the preliminary fights: ——————– Patrick Cote -195 Bobby Voelker +155 Darren Elkins -230 Antonio Carvalho +170 Jordan Mein -230 Dan Miller +170 Daron Cruickshank -140 John Makdessi +100 Rick Story -320 Quinn Mulhern +240 TJ Dillashaw -405 Issei Tamura +285 George Roop -140 Reuben Duran +100 ——————– The previously opened odds are: ——————– Georges St-Pierre -440 Nick Diaz +340 Johny Hendricks -150 Carlos Condit +115 Jake Ellenberger -160 Nate Marquardt +120 Nick Ring -180 Chris Camozzi +140 Mike Ricci -285 Colin Fletcher +205 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: In the headline bout of the prelims, Quebec native Patrick Cote makes his welterweight debut against Strikeforce import Bobby Voelker. This fight is full of unknowns, as Cote has never cut down to 170 before and Voelker has not had a fight since July 2011. Who wins could come down to whether the weight cut takes more out of Cote or the time off takes its toll on Voelker. Cote does open as the favorite due to his experience against top competition, but if his cardio suffers Voelker will be all too willing to play spoiler, as he has shown in the past that he is dangerous late in fights. Darren Elkins has been campaigning for more prominent fights in the UFC on the heels of his current four-fight winning streak, but before he cracks into the upper echelon at 145, he’ll have to get through Antonio Carvalho. Elkins’ four consecutive wins have all come by decision, and Carvalho will prove difficult for him to finish as well, so the question becomes whether Elkins can get the takedowns and establish control to sway the judges. Carvalho’s kick-heavy offense could make this task a bit easier for him, and is part of the reason Elkins opens as the favorite. Jordan Mein has literally grown up inside the cage, as he made his professional debut at age 16, and already has 34 bouts on his resume at the age of 23. Despite being eight years younger than his opponent, Dan Miller, he has far more experience in the cage. Whether this helps to settle Mein in his UFC debut remains to be seen, but his experience in headlining televised cards in Canada and competing for Strikeforce should keep the nerves to a minimum. With that being said, he still has the task of dealing with the very durable Miller, but Mein has shown a well-rounded and ever-improving game which makes him the rightful favorite in this bout. Daron Cruickshank and John Makdessi could very well be the early pick for ‘Fight of the Night’ as both men are exciting strikers. Cruickshank opens as the slight favorite because his game is a bit more well-rounded than Makdessi’s, but if they choose to stand and slug it out, this could go either way. When he takes on Rick Story, Quinn Mulhern is facing a style and step up in competition akin to the one he encountered against Jason High in his Strikeforce debut. The odds have been set accordingly with Story as a solid favorite. Story should be able to shut down Mulhern’s submission attack and notch another decision victory here, which he desperately needs to break out of a current 1-3 run in the UFC. Impressive bantamweight prospect TJ Dillashaw opens as the second biggest favorite on the card, as he takes on Japanese import Issei Tamura. Dillashaw has rebounded nicely from his TKO loss to John Dodson in the TUF 14 finale, as his high-paced style combining takedowns, ground-and-pound, and submission attempts has given his opponents fits. Look for that to continue in this bout as long as Dillashaw avoids the one-punch KO power that Tamura has recently shown he possesses. On first sight, the opening bout of the card seems like it should go George Roop’s way without much issue, as Reuben Duran looked less than impressive in his last outing; a KO loss at the hands of Hugo Viana. However, upon closer inspection the biggest issue Viana presented for Duran was his speed, something Roop is not particularly well-known for. In addition, the last time Roop made his way down to bantamweight, he simply did not look –- or fight -– well. If Roop has made the cut more scientifically this time around and doesn’t have any ill effects, his tremendous range for the weight class should allow him to pick Duran apart on the feet. That’s a rather big unknown to make him a big favorite, so the line only opens slightly his way.
