Today the final two lines for the PPV portion of UFC 158 were opened to the public at Several Bookmakers. The event takes place on Saturday, March 16th from the Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and is headlined by a highly anticipated welterweight title fight between champion Georges St-Pierre and Nick Diaz. The card also features two other prominent welterweight fights, as Johny Hendricks faces off with Carlos Condit and Jake Ellenberger welcomes Nate Marquardt back to the UFC. Below are the opening odds for each of the main card bouts: ——————– Georges St-Pierre -440 Nick Diaz +340 Johny Hendricks -150 Carlos Condit +110 Jake Ellenberger -160 Nate Marquardt +120 Nick Ring -180 Chris Camozzi +140 Mike Ricci -285 Colin Fletcher +205 ——————– Brad Analyis: The lines on the top three fights have been out for a while now, so let’s focus on the newest openers. Nick Ring is a slight favorite against Chris Camozzi at this point, and I expect that line to rise slightly throughout the week due to him fighting on his home soil, and a style which judges reward very highly. That is no slight against Camozzi, as he has gone 6-2 since his stint on TUF 11, a record which includes a current three-fight winning streak. However, his level of competition has not been particularly high and he has struggled against the more seasoned fighters he’s stepped in to the Octagon against. Ring is 3-1 in the UFC, and while many feel he should be 1-3 instead, he has been competitive with some very good fighters in the UFC. Mike Ricci finds himself as a bigger favorite against Colin Fletcher, which is an indication that oddsmakers feel the quality of talent on TUF Smashes likely isn’t the same as that of the more traditional iterations of the series. I don’t expect too much movement in this line, as bettors will likely be wary of Ricci following his uninspired performance on the finale of his season. Meanwhile, Fletcher was outwrestled in his attempt to capture an Ultimate Fighter contract, but did show some slick grappling skills during his season. Given the manner in which Ricci was defeated in his last outing, Fletcher could get some underdog support. In the end however, I don’t think ‘Freakshow’ will have the wrestling to put the same type of gameplan in place that Colton Smith was able to execute so well against the Canadian.
