UFC on FOX 17 Date: December 19, 2015 Arena: Amway Center City: Orlando, FL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns this Saturday (December 19, 2015) to Orlando, FL with UFC on FOX 17: Dos Anjos vs Cerrone 2. The action-packed 13 fight card will get going with the Fight Pass prelims at 3:30pm ET and the FOX Sports 1 prelims to follow at 5pm ET, with main card action getting underway at 8pm ET on FOX. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Heavyweight bout: Alistair Overeem (+300) vs Junior Dos Santos (-360) Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with Dos Santos being the favorite to win in this match-up, but I don’t think he should be such a big favorite. He is the more likely fighter to finish and has the better chin, so it makes sense for him to be favored, but I think Overeem has a good chance of scoring a knock out of his own, and with Greg Jackson in his corner, I think he could even have a solid game-plan to out-point or grind the Brazilian out over three rounds of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think this fight is much closer than the betting odds currently indicate. I would have to see both fighters weigh-in before making an official pick, but at the moment I lean JDS but believe the betting value is with Overeem, so I will be siding with him for a wager at the underdog price of +300. Gabe’s Call: JDS by T/KO (punches, 1:08 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Overeem (+300) 2u to win 6u Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson (-470) vs Nate Diaz (+375) Gabe’s Thoughts: At this point in their careers, I believe Johnson to be the superior mixed martial artist and do agree that he should be favored to win this fight. That said, I don’t think he should be as high as a 5-to-1 betting favorite, as I think Diaz has a legitimiate chance of getting his hand raised. More importantly, I think Diaz has more routes to victory in this contest. I think he could win a decision on the judges’ scorecards, especially if Johnson does not show up on top of his game, and I could see him finishing the fight via either submission or T/KO. On the other hand, I could only see Johnson defeating Diaz on the judges’ scorecards. I would be stunned to see him submit Diaz and think a T/KO is highly unlikely. There’s a chance he could end up battering Diaz on the feet for three rounds, but I don’t think he will find the stoppage. To conclude, I think this fight is a lot closer than the betting odds currently indiciate, and if Diaz is on top of his game, I think he has a good chance of getting his hand raised. But that is the big if. Gabe’s Call: Johnson by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Diaz (+375) 2u to win 7.5u
