Kicking off the busiest UFC weekend ever will be a Fight Pass event on Thursday night. The subscription service has become more of a focus for the organization in 2015, and UFC Fight Night 80 is a great example of that. The UFC’s youth movement will be on full display with Paige Van Zant and Rose Namajunas at a combined age of less-than-Dan-Henderson in the main event. A win for either strawweight will put them in the thick of the UFC’s 115lb title picture. Van Zant’s partner in MMA’s Mickey Mouse Club, Sage Northcutt, will make his second appearance in the UFC on the card as well. Northcutt is a massive favorite over Cody Pfister, as the UFC seems intent on pushing him as a star. Top bantamweight prospect Aljamain Sterling sees himself buried on the undercard, where he will be joined by fellow prospects Zubaira Tukhugov, Danny Roberts, and of course, Kevin Casey. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the full UFC Fight Night 80 card today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 10pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:45pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: I actually think Jim Miller can replicate some of the success Joe Lauzon found against Michael Chiesa. Chiesa has improved his striking, and is always a danger on the ground, but I’m just not convinced that he can keep the distance well enough to avoid Miller putting damage on him consistently. Even if this does hit the ground, it’s rare for Miller to be outgrappled, and I don’t put Chiesa in that class that can do that. If I can get any bigger of a number on Joisey’s Finest, I’ll bite. Elias Theodorou should be one of the rising stars who makes an impression on this card. He’s got a solid matchup against a talented, but one-dimensional Thiago Santos. If this stays on the feet, Theodorou will be in trouble, but he shouldn’t struggle much to get him down consistently. At the current price, I don’t like a bet, but if it comes down below 2-to-1, I’ll take Theodorou. As long as Tim Means takedown defense has actually improved, I think John Howard is an excellent rebound fight for him. Howard isn’t going to overwhelm him with pressure and activity, and that will allow Means to set his pace, and a comfortable Means is usually quite predatory on the feet, where Howard has begun to show vulnerability. The under is intriguing to me here, as I think Howard’s chin may be on the way out. The trend on this card seems to be that the young fighters are supposed to prevail, and while I think that will generally be the case, Omari Akhmedov is a bit too loose with his overall game for Moraes to not take advantage in a couple of spots. Of course, Akhmedov could knock Moraes out on the feet, but that’s been a more difficult task than one would assume with their first glance at Moraes’ standup. I’ll need a plus number to bet it, but the early lean is towards that vet here. I’m not betting against Kevin Casey. I can’t do it. I hope that most people think his magical ride ends here, and that they bet ‘Shoeface’ as a result, because I could see Casey staying competitive on the feet and riding out some top position. If I can get a number upwards of +200 on that possibility, I may take it, but I think it’s a bit more likely that the TUF Brazil winner takes over in the later rounds. Aljamain Sterling is here because of his mouth, and no other reason. He deserves to be at the top of this card, and will put on a performance against an aging fighter who has been out of action for a year and a half that proves that. Eduardo is a good striker, who caught a reckless former title contender in his last fight, and that shouldn’t keep this line low as a result. Sterling can still get clipped on his way inside, but it won’t stop him from getting inside. Once there, he’s significantly better than Eduardo in every aspect of grappling, which I see leading to a submission finish. I may be looking at the under again here, to cover for the potential that I’m selling Eduardo’s finishing ability short, but I like Sterling to insert himself into title contention… if the UFC doesn’t try to bury him. Andreas Stahl allowed himself to get controlled in a few too many exchanges against an outsized Gilbert Burns for my liking against an aggressive fighter like Ponzinibbio. I expect the Argentine to push forward, land, move into the clinch, and then rinse and repeat for 15 minutes against the durable Swede. If Nate Coy didn’t have Nate Coy’s chin, I’d like his chances against Danny Roberts, especially in the Brit’s first fight outside of the UK. Roberts is a bit too dynamic of a finisher for an aging Coy to deal with at this point, but the fact that Roberts has been controlled for portions of fights and is a Brit fighting an American wrestler is going to keep me away from anything other than a decently sized prop on a finish for him. Philippe Nover is one of those fighters who quietly improved his game after initially flaming out in the UFC, and that creates an interesting fight with Zubaira Tukhugov. I’m not sold on this Russian yet, and Nover is a long way from Ernest Chavez, so if anything, I’d want to take a shot on the veteran’s grappling to control this fight or find a sub, but I’d need a much bigger number than +150 to play it. Pass. Kailin Curran can’t find a way to lose this one… can she? Emily Kagan hasn’t shown any finishing ability, and Curran is a more skilled fighter who competes at a higher pace. That all points to a Curran decision, and you’d be hard-pressed to convince me otherwise.