UFC 194 Date: December 12, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will be live and on Pay Per View from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on December 12, 2016 with UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor. The stacked 12-fight card will kick off with Fight Pass prelims at 7pm ET and preliminary action will continue at 8pm ET on FOX Sports 1. The main card will get underway at 10pm ET on Pay Per View. The Aldo vs McGregor featherweight title bout will be headlining the card, and the co-main event will be a middleweight title fight between defending champion Chris Weidman and challenger Luke Rockhold. On paper, UFC 194 is arguably the greatest card in UFC history. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Welterweight bout: Demian Maia (-150) vs Gunnar Nelson (+130) Gabe’s Thoughts: Maia and Nelson cancel each other out in the grappling, in my opinion, as they are both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace’s, but Maia does have a size advantage over Nelson heading into the contest, so that makes it a little interesting. I don’t think he will be able to submit Nelson, so the question is whether he will be able to use his size (and likely strength) advantage to grind Nelson out for a unanimous decision victory. I think that is a very likely outcome to this welterweight contest, and I think an equally likely outcome is Nelson finding success in keeping the fight standing and using his superior striking to outstrike the Brazilian en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I could see them splitting rounds heading into the third, where I think Nelson would get the better of Maia because he has the better conditioning between the two. Keeping in mind the new IV ban and the fact that Maia cuts a lot of weight to make the welterweight limit while Nelson does not cut any weight, I think there is a decent chance Maia could fade early, where we would see Nelson put him away with the Irish-heavy Vegas crowd going nuts for their Icelandic boy. I think Nelson should be slightly favored in this contest, so I’ll take him as a slight underdog. Gabe’s Call: Nelson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Nelson (+130) 3u to win 3.9u Bantamweight bout: Frankie Saenz (+500) vs Urijah Faber (-700) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Faber should be favored in this match-up, however I don’t agree with his current offering price of -700. I think the current odds are ridiculous and even though I wanted to avoid wagering on this bout, I can’t ignore the value I’m getting with Saenz at +500. I expect Faber to win and set himself up for a title shot against the winner of next month’s Dominic Cruz vs TJ Dillashaw, but I could see him losing and ending up facing the loser of that contest. I believe Saenz has a legitimate chance at winning this void and at the current odds, I have to take a stab. Gabe’s Call: Faber by Submission (guillotine choke, 0:19 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Saenz (+500) 1u to win 5u
