UFC Fight Night 78 Date: November 21, 2015 Arena: Arena Monterrey City: Monterrey, Mexico The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Monterrey, Mexico for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 78: Gastelum vs Magny. The event will feature 11 bouts in entirety, leading off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET, with FOX Sports 1 prelims to follow at 8pm ET and the main card to get going at 10pm ET on the same channel. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my prop plays: Diego Sanchez (+420) vs Ricardo Lamas (-475) Sanchez ITD (+805) 1u to win 8.05u Sanchez +3.5 (+160) 2u to win 3.2u I think this fight is a lot closer than the betting odds suggest and could see Sanchez finishing Lamas with either strikes or a submission, so I see value in the Sanchez Inside the Distance prop at +805. Should he find himself on the losing end of this one, I think it will more than likely come on the judges’ scorecards, where I expect he will have done enough to win at least one round. Taylor Lapilus (-105) vs Erik Perez (-105) Perez by Submission (+510) 1u to win 5.1u “Goyito” is the superior grappler of the two heading into this bantamweight contest and I think there is a good chance he takes Lapilus down to the mat and dominates him there, likely securing a submission for a finish in front of his hometown crowd in Monterrey. Perez has the better Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game of the two and I think that will play a difference in this match-up. I favor a rear naked choke finish here but I could also see him getting an armbar, guillotine or flying triangle. Okay, maybe not a flying triangle. Perez has personally stated that he is looking for the knockout in this fight and predicts that will be the outcome, but personally I think the fight eventually hits the mat, where his superior Jiu-Jitsu takes over and he ultimately secures a finish. A T/KO finish would not surprise me, but I think the chances of it happening are slim, whereas a submission finish is a very likely outcome, as long as he does indeed decide to initiate the grappling. Alejandro Perez (+115) vs Scott Jorgensen (-125) Perez by T/KO (+480) 1u to win 4.8u I think there is a good chance Perez finishes Jorgensen on the feet, as I think he is the superior striker of the two and Jorgensen and his chin are on a decline. At +480, I definitely think this play is worth a shot. Andre Fili (-220) vs Gabriel Benitez (+200) Benitez by Submission (+645) 1u to win 6.45u Benitez in Round One (+700) .5u to win 3.5u I think Benitez is the superior striker and grappler of the two here and in my opinion should be the betting favorite heading into this match-up. I think there is a good chance he finishes Fili by submission. I could see him hurting him on the feet, too, but more often than not, if he does hurt him with strikes, I think he will capitalize on a hurt Fili by latching on to a choke to earn the tap and his third straight victory inside the Octagon. He does already have a third round submission finish in the UFC, but I think his best chances of latching on to something are in the first round, where neither he or Fili will be very sweaty.
