UFC Fight Night 78 Date: November 21, 2015 Arena: Arena Monterrey City: Monterrey, Mexico The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads to Monterrey, Mexico for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 78: Monterrey. The event will feature 11 bouts in entirety, leading off with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm ET, with FOX Sports 1 prelims to follow at 8pm ET and the main card to get going at 10pm ET on the same channel. If interested in wagering on these plays, or any plays for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs: Lightweight bout: Efrain Escudero (+120) vs Leandro Silva (-140) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Escudero’s advantages in striking and wrestling are going to be his keys to victory in this 155-pound boutr. I see him getting the better of Silva on the feet and possibly mixing in takedowns, though he may be doing so well on the feet that he opts to keep the fight there for all 15 minutes of action. I think Escudero should be a -240 betting favorite here, so I really like him for a play at his current underdog tag of +120. Outside of catching Escudero in a submission, which is a realistic though unlikely outcome, I don’t see how Silva gets his hand raised. He has power in his hands but lacks the technique to catch and put Escudero away, in my opinion, and I don’t think he will be able to grind Escudero out for three rounds, either, so I don’t see him taking it on the judges’ scorecards. I think this fight goes wherever Escudero wants it to go, as I think he will be the dominant fighter on the feet and in top position on the mat. Escudero’s mental issues appear to be behind him and he has been looking like a real TUF winner; I expect him to continue to impress, as he extends his Octagon winning streak to three. Gabe’s Call: Escudero by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Escudero (+120) 5u to win 6u Welterweight bout: Hector Urbina (+165) vs Bartosz Fabinski (-215) Gabe’s Thoughts: I am not at all big on either of these welterweights, however I think Urbina is the superior mixed martial artist of the two and should be the one being favored to win heading into the match-up, especially considering he will have a home advantage with the Mexican crowd in Monterrey. I expect Urbina to throw some bombs on the feet, then change things up and go for the takedown; in every round, for all three rounds, grinding Fabinski out on the mat en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I think Fabinski’s best chance at victory is to catch Urbina with strikes and put him away. While that is a possible outcome to this 170-pound contest, I think the chances of it happening are slim. If Urbina finds himself hurt at some point in the contest, I think it is slightly more likely that he will tough it out and survive. I could see him getting hurt in the first, surviving, then going on to win the second and third rounds for his second consecutive victory inside the Octagon. That said, I do think it is more likely he will start getting the better of Fabinski from the opening round. Gabe’s Call: Urbina by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Urbina (+165) 3u to win 4.95u
