UFC Fight Night 77 Date: November 7th, 2015 Arena: Ginásio do Ibirapuera City: Sao Paulo, Brazil Here is my parlay… Lightweight bout: Gilbert Burns (+170) vs Rashid Magomedov (-200) Gabe’s Thoughts: Burns is the superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner heading into this 155-pound bout and would get the better of Magomedov in a BJJ only match-up, however in a mixed martial arts fight, I don’t like his chances. If Magomedov finds himself in a defensive position, I think he will manage to survive, however I don’t think we will see him playing much defense, as I expect him to be pushing the pace from the opening bell. Magomedov has a massive edge in striking heading into this bout and I believe that will be the difference. I see him keeping this fight on the feet and soundly outstriking the Brazilian, potentially putting him away with strikes. I don’t think Burns is going to have any answers for Magomedov on the feet, so I expect a stoppage will come at some point, though I won’t be surprised to see Burns tough it out for three rounds for a unanimous decision defeat on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Magomedov by TKO (strikes, 3:00 round 1) Light Heavyweight bout: Corey Anderson (-600) vs Fabio Maldonado (+450) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I think Anderson is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this light heavyweight bout and see him dominating this bout, likely earning a stoppage victory against the tough to put away Brazilian. I think Anderson should be a -2000 betting favorite here, so I think there is plenty of value in him at his current offering price of -600. I don’t think Maldonado has any route to victory in this match-up and will be truly surprised if he gets his hand raised. Gabe’s Call: Anderson by TKO (strikes, 3:52 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Magomedov (-200) and Anderson (-600) at -134 for 5u to win 3.75u
