UFC 149: July 21, 2012 Calgary, Alberta, Canada (Featherweight Title) Erik Koch (+285) Profile: Koch (13-1) is 2-0 in the UFC and previously competed in the WEC like his opponent Aldo. The lone loss of his career came against Chad Mendes at WEC 47 via unanimous decision, and he has since won four straight, including a unanimous decision win over TUF 12 winner Jonathan Brookins last September 17. Ironically, Mendes suffered his first career loss to Aldo at UFC 142 on January 14. Three of Koch’s last four fights have ended in the first round with him earning Knockout of the Night honors in two of them. Of his 13 career wins, seven have resulted in submissions with three knockouts and three decisions. Koch has never gone five rounds, but he seems very hungry and excited and more than ready for his first title shot. Jose Aldo (-385) Profile: Aldo (21-1) has won 14 straight fights and is 3-0 in the UFC since carrying over his WEC featherweight title. All three of his UFC bouts have been in defense of his featherweight title, as he has earned unanimous decision wins over Mark Hominick at UFC 129 and Kenny Florian at UFC 136 before knocking out Mendes in the first round at UFC 142. Aldo’s only career loss came against Luciano Azevedo at Jungle Fight 5 in his first and last appearance at lightweight. He has dominated almost everybody in his path since then, knocking out six straight opponents during his winning streak at one point before transitioning to the UFC. Opening Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has installed the champion Aldo as a heavy -385 favorite (bet $385 to win $100) against the challenger Koch, a +285 underdog (bet $100 to win $285). Some MMA betting experts thought Aldo might be ripe for an upset heading into the Mendes fight, but he answered his critics with a resounding victory at the end of the first round. Before that, the champ went the five-round distance in three of his previous four bouts. Koch has knockout power though and could potentially catch Aldo with a shot like he has done in ending two of his last three fights. Aldo also could have a hard time with Koch’s size, as he is giving up three inches in height despite the fact that their reaches are identical. Koch must use his height and power to his advantage, otherwise he will just be another one of Aldo’s victims.
