Plays for RFA 31
The Ressurection Fighting Alliance (RFA) returns tonight (Friday, October 9, 2015) with RFA 31 from the Downtown Las Vegas Events Center in Las Vegas, NV. The event will feature a three-fight untelevised preliminary card and a six-fight main card to follow, which will be live on AXS TV starting at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on any plays for this fight card, all betting lines have been made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks.
Here are my plays for RFA 31:
Welterweight title bout: Bristol Marunde (+130) vs Gilbert Smith (-160)
Gabe's Thoughts: I would not be surprised to see Smith outstrike Marunde, but I think he wins this fight by scoring takedowns and grinding out a unanimous decision on the judges' scorecards. The only way I see Marunde winning this fight is by catching Smith with a lucky shot or scoring a late, come from behind TKO if Smith gasses. Smith may find himself in trouble towards the end of the fight, if fatigue begins to set in, but I think he will survive until the final bell and will have already secured at least three rounds to earn the nod from the judges.
Gabe's Call: Smith by Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Smith (-160) 3.2u to win 2u
Women's Strawweight title bout: Jocelyn's Jones-Lybarger (+160) vs Zoila Frausto (-210)
Gabe's Thoughts: Frausto is coming off an extended layoff and was attempting to fight at 115-pounds for this contest, which was supposed to be her divisional debut, as well as for the RFA inaugral strawweight title. She stepped on the scale 1.6 pounds overweight and was disqualified from earning the title, should he win the contest. However, the title is still on the line for Jones-Lybarger, and with a win, she will become the promotions first 115-pound title holder. She is getting a massive step up in competition in Frausto here and will be facing the toughest test of her professional mixed martial arts career. Frausto is coming off a long layoff, which she took after she was showing signs of decline, so Jones-Lybarger has a good chance of defeating her in this contest, either by a decision or late stoppage. In a three rounder, I would favor Frausto to pick up the nod, but I don't trust her cardio heading into a five round fight coming off a long layoff and cutting down to a new weight division. Even on her decline, Frausto is still likely the superior fighter here, but I think Jones-Lybarger has gotten good timing with this fight booking and will have a fairly goot shot at defeating the veteran.
Gabe's Call: Jones-Lybarger by TKO (punches, 4:33 round 4)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Jones-Lybarger (+160) 1u to win 1.6u