So, Floyd Mayweather Jr’s last fight is here this weekend (September 12, 2015) as he takes on former WBC World Champion Andre Berto at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Mayweather (48-0) has been criticized for the choice of Berto (30-3) as an opponent, and the books have installed him as a massive favorite, paying (-2000) currently, with the comeback on Berto at (+1250). With a line like that, can you really get into putting a little money on the line for this one? After all, a (-2000) line means you must put $2000 on the line to win back $100, and even the most confident Mayweather fan must look at that and think “why bother?” This might be why it is worth looking at the Prop bets books such as Several Bookmakers are putting up for this fight. Normally, props pop up at the books for a fight pretty close to the day of the contest, but with a fight of this magnitude, the books have a slew of betting odds up with the fight still days away. That is a good amount of time for a shrewd betttor to find some value on the table. If you think Berto can win or at least are willing to bet it, there are going to be some big payouts heading your way should he pulls off the upset. But can you bet money on Mayweather and win without risking 20 to win 1? The over/under for the 12 round bout is set at 11 1/2, with the over paying (-220) and the under coming back at (+180). It is in the fight going the distance that the best values are found, and, it is a relatively simple formula. Mayweather will use speed and prowess to elude Berto, who will swing and miss for 12 rounds en route to a unanimous decision for “Money.” Mayweather’s last six fights have gone the distance, and the streak of fights going the distance extends itself back to December of 2007 if you exclude Mayweather’s 2011 street “knock out game” KO of Victor Ortiz. He has not stopped anybody since 2007 (Ricky Hatton). The big fear is that Mayweather may change his stripes and try to go out with a KO, but the fact is that this is not his style. With Berto coming in aggressive, this fight could resemble the Maidana fights, which despite the props given to the Argentine, were both “W” over the distance by Mayweather. Since moving up to welterweight more than eight years ago, Mayweather has not shown any power to speak of, so it is on the safe side to say it is going to go the distance. As of this writing, Several Bookmakers had the line for Mayweather to win by decision going the distance paying (-193).
