UFC 191 Date: September 5, 2015 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV Flyweight bout: Demetrious Johnson (-550) vs John Dodson (+425) Fight Breakdown: The main event for UFC 191 will be a rematch between UFC Flyweight Champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and rival John “The Magician” Dodson. The defending champ is a -550 ($550 to win $100) betting favorite heading into the title fight, with the challenger Dodson being a +425 ($100 to win $425) underdog at Several Bookmakerss. Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson (22-2-1 MMA, 10-1-1 UFC) is coming off a fifth round armbar submission win over Kyoji Horiguchi, which came in at the 4:59 mark, making it the latest finish in UFC history. It was also Johnson’s second consecutive submission win, and his third inside the Octagon. After making a sixth successful title defense against Horiguchi, he looks ahead to a rematch with Dodson, who he aims to defeat for the second time in his seventh UFC Flyweight title defense. “Mighty Mouse” is exceptionally talented in every facet of Mixed Martial Arts, and continues to make improvements everywhere. He (along with Dodson) is arguably the fastest fighter to ever compete inside the Octagon. Johnson is incredibly quick on the feet, and that really benefits his striking defense, which is outstanding. He puts together some beautiful combinations and often gets out of the way before his opponent has a chance to react. The WEC veteran has a solid wrestling game and likes to implement it to win rounds. He is often successful in his takedown attempts, and like with everything else he does, he is very quick with his shots. He does an excellent job of setting them up with his strikes, too. While in top position on the mat, he does not just grind it out until the round ends. He spends the entire time working; landing shots, while looking for possible submissions. He is constantly looking for openings, both on the feet and on the mat, and he is always quick to take advantage of them. The former bantamweight’s defensive wrestling is also on point, as he possesses solid takedown defense. And when taken down, he is not easy to keep down. He remains active off his back, looking to score points and search for a way back to his feet. Johnson fights out of AMC Pankration in Seattle, W.A. under the tutelage of Matt Hume, and he has tremendous conditioning, so he will be fully capable of going five rounds of action, if necessary. John “The Magician” Dodson (17-6 MMA, 5-1 UFC) is coming off a unanimous decision win over Zach Makovsky that puts him in a three fight winning streak inside the Octagon, with two T/KO finishes. After coming very close to knocking out and defeating Johnson in their first outing, Dodson looks to make the most of this rematch by getting the job done on Saturday night. The 30-year old is a talented striker with great footwork and greater speed; along with Johnson, being arguably the fastest fighter on the UFC’s roster. He is also arguably the most powerful flyweight in all of Mixed Martial Arts, especially now that John Lineker is no longer part of the division. “The Magician” has a hard straight-right, puts together some very effective combinations on the feet, and is a very good counter-striker, especially with his counter-hooks. He has phenomenal athleticism and a solid chin. He has excellent takedown defense, and when takedown, he does a great job of quickly working his way back to his feet. He has a win over current UFC Bantamweight Champion TJ Dillashaw, and he defeated him via first round knockout to become The Ultimate Fighter Season 14 bantamweight winner. Of course, he has since dropped down to his natural weight class of 125-pounds. Training in high-altitude out of Jackson-Winklejohn MMA in Albuquerque, NM, Dodson has great conditioning, though, that was not exactly the case the last time he had to go five rounds. While still in the fight, he was not nearly as quick as he was in earlier rounds, where he hurt and nearly finished Johnson. That said, I think he will have made improvements in that department for this outing, though I expect he will still be at somewhat of a conditioning disadvantage heading into this bout, as “Mighty Mouse” is a cardio machine. Gabe’s Thoughts: Regardless of who gets his hand raised, I like this fight to end inside the distance. I think either Dodson scores an early knockout or Johnson puts him away in the third or fifth; either by submission or T/KO. At +160, I think that’s the play here. Gabe’s Call: Johnson by T/KO (strikes, 3:21 round 4) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 4.5 (+160) 1.5u to win 2.4u
