This Friday, Bellator will be the only show in town for MMA fans. Bellator 141 isn’t one of the organization’s ‘tentpole’ events, so it hasn’t gotten a lot of coverage, but it shouldn’t be lacking for action once the cage door closes. The main event features the Bellator debut of Melvin Guillard, as he takes on Brandon Girtz in a three-round lightweight affair. Guillard made the move from UFC to WSOF following increasingly lackluster performances. While he looked impressive in his debut with the organization, stopping Gesias Cavalcante with strikes, he then dropped a decision to Justin Gaethje, and then went missing leading up to his scheduled bout against Ozzy Dugulubgov. WSOF proceeded to cut ties with him, and he signed with Bellator which will likely prove as his last shot on a big stage. Brandon Girtz is nowhere near as traveled as his opponent, spending his last six bouts in Bellator and compiling a 4-2 record. His submission game has proven his biggest weapon over the years, scoring seven of eleven victories that way. Against a fighter like Guillard, who has been submitted nine times in his career, that seems to be a viable path to victory even though Guillard handpicked Girtz as his first Bellator opponent. Bellator 141 also features a number of fights which seem like they’ll be ending quickly. The co-main event is another lightweight bout between Patricky Freire and Saad Awad, a pair of men with heavy hands and solid submission skills. Rounding out the main card are two heavyweight bouts. Former TUF competitor Justin Wren returns after a five year absence from MMA to face journeyman Josh Burns. This is the type of fight that would have seemed a cakewalk for Wren if he was still active, but it’s nearly impossible to know what sort of condition he’ll be in after that kind of layoff. Kicking off the main card, former heavyweight boxer Raphael Butler hopes to continue putting his lone career loss in the rearview mirror, as he faces hard hitting Lorenzo Hood. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for the main card of Bellator 141 as well as three preliminary bouts at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Spike TV, 9pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike.com, 6pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: It’s weird to see a seven-fight MMA card and not see any totals set above 1.5 rounds, but that’s exactly what Scott Coker is shooting for with his version of Bellator. I can see many of these fights going over that total, but there is certainly potential for each to be done within a couple of minutes. The thing that differs between this card and most Bellator cards, is that the clear choices to win these fights aren’t nearly as consistent as normal. It’s easy to lay upwards of -500 on Michael Chandler, Daniel Straus, or any of the other fighters on the roster because they’re very likely to go out and do what they need to do. Melvin Guillard? Patricky Freire? Not so much. There’s nothing that truly jumps out at me on this card. If the line on Guillard goes up, I may consider taking a shot on Girtz, but that’s more fading Guillard’s preparation at this point. Freire/Awad deserves to be a close fight, as either man could hurt the other with one punch, but I do lean towards ‘Pitbull’. I may have something I like in the Wren/Burns fight, and that would be the over, but even then, trusting Josh Burns to stick around for 7:30 in a fight that he’s likely going to be on his back getting punched seems a tall order. Even Raphael Butler — who I normally fade with ease — isn’t so easy to bet against here. Lorenzo Hood has faced no notable competition, and Butler probably will land first to get him out of there. Even on the undercard it’s tough to find spots. Sordi/Matthews sees a submission threat against a knockout threat, but neither is of high enough calibre to make me confident enough to place a bet. Derek Anderson and Brent Primus might be the best fight on the card in terms of future potential, but the stylistic clash is such that it’s tough to lay money on. I expect Anderson will emerge victorious, but he’s given up takedowns and rounds in bouts before, and Primus is not a fighter you want to be underneath. Finally, Marloes Coenen is buried on the undercard here for some reason, and even though she should be the consistent fighter who runs through her overmatched opponent that I was talking about earlier, I think she’s getting towards the end of her rope as a top fighter. Arlene Blencowe may not be the one to capitalize, but I think it’s coming. This may just be a card I pass on entirely, but I’m sure after the public gets through with the lines I’ll find something of value to keep me intrigued through this card. Even if that doesn’t happen, there should be plenty of finishes.