The preliminary card of UFC Fight Night 74 is headlined by a lightweight matchup between longtime veteran Sam Stout and New Jersey native Frankie Perez. Both fighters are coming off of knockout losses in their most recent outing and will attempt to get back in the win column with a win on Sunday night. Sam Stout (20-11-1 MMA, 9-10 UFC, +115 underdog) Stout, a 19-fight UFC veteran, finds himself in a tough place. He has lost three of his last four, including his last two by brutal knockout. While he is only 31 years old, he admittedly has a lot of miles on his body from years of training and fighting. The Ontario, Canada native has notable wins over Joe Lauzon, Yves Edwards, Matt Wiman, Spencer Fisher, and Yves Jabouin. With his job likely on the line, Stout desperately needs to win on Sunday night. Stout is an above average kickboxer that also has solid takedown defense and conditioning. On the feet he works a stiff jab, straight right, and left hook. Sam is also adept at ending his combinations with kicks to the head and body. Further, he is very good at working his opponent’s body, which can pay dividends in a three round fight. Stout was known as someone that had an iron chin for many years; he was very difficult to even hurt or knock down. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case, as he has been brutally knocked out in consecutive outings by Ross Pearson and K.J. Noons. Sam relied on his chin for many years, often neglecting his defense and head movement. He will have to change that if he wants to continue fighting because his chin will not improve, it will only get worse. Additionally, Stout tends to abandon his technique and engage in wild brawls, which he could get away with for many years because of his strong chin. The offensive and defensive wrestling of Stout has improved a good amount over the last few years. He has above average takedown defense and also occasionally mixes in takedowns of his own. While his ground game is not great, he has only been submitted twice in his UFC career. That is decent considering he has faced some of the best lightweights in the UFC for almost a decade. When Sam gains top position he focuses mostly on maintaining position and landing ground and pound; he is not an offensive submission threat. Frankie Perez (9-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC, -135 favorite) Perez, a member of the Ricardo Almeida and Mark Henry fight team in New Jersey, made his UFC debut in January against Johnny Case. The contest did not go very well for him, as he was completely dominated by Case and ultimately stopped in the third round by ground strikes. It should be noted that Frankie took the fight on short notice, which likely hindered his performance. Perez had compiled an 8-1 record prior to his UFC debut, with most of his fights taking place in the Ring of Combat promotion in New Jersey. He now returns after a seven month layoff to make his second appearance inside the Octagon. Perez is a decent athlete that has finished six of his nine wins by either knockout or submission. Kicks are probably Perez’s best weapons on the feet, as he throws them hard and fast from an orthodox stance. Boxing is not a very strong discipline for Frankie, as he often wings his punches and will throw wild flurries. As I mentioned, Perez is an adept finisher, especially on the ground. Five of his nine wins have come by submission. The Ricardo Almeida brown belt has dangerous chokes and leg locks, and he will not hesitate to give up position if he thinks he can lock in a submission. The main problem, however, is that he does not have very good wrestling. That showed in his fight against Case, as he was outwrestled and worked over from top position. Perez did fatigue in that fight, which could have been the result of an adrenaline dump. He will have the opportunity to redeem himself against Stout on Sunday night. Thoughts This seems like a fight that Stout would win pretty easily a few years ago. He has a big technical advantage on the feet and the takedown defense to keep it there. However, his recent chin and defensive issues are a huge concern. Perez has decent power and has much less miles on him, which could be a big factor. If Perez can catch him with something on the feet he may be able to put him away with strikes or jump on a submission. However, if Perez does not catch him with something he could very well lose a decision. I think Stout has a decent shot here, even though he is surely on the downside of his career. I will side with Stout, but it is not a very confident pick. The Prediction: Sam Stout defeats Frankie Perez by unanimous decision.
