The main card of UFC Fight Night 74 features a welterweight contest between longtime veterans Josh Burkman and Patrick Cote. Cote enters this fight the winner of four out of his last five fights, while Burkman has dropped three out of his last four and is in a must-win situation. Josh Burkman (27-11 (1 NC) MMA, 5-6 (1 NC) UFC, -135 favorite) Burkman made a surprise return to the UFC earlier this year when he faced top welterweight contender Hector Lombard at UFC 182. Lombard won a dominant decision, but the fight was later declared a no contest after Lombard failed a post-fight drug test. Josh’s next outing was a submission loss to Dong Hyun Kim in a fight that was pretty competitive at times. However, Burkman made some questionable decisions in the fight and wound up getting submitted in the third round. He enters this fight against Cote in a must-win situation if he wants to keep his job with the company. He holds notable wins over Jon Fitch, Aaron Simpson, Josh Neer, and Drew Fickett. The 34 year old Burkman is a longtime veteran of the sport and one of the competitors on season two of The Ultimate Fighter. The Pit Elevated member is a former college football standout and high school wrestler. While his football career never took off, Burkman has managed to stick around the world’s top mixed martial arts promotions for a decade. The Salt Lake City, Utah native is an explosive athlete that has a well-rounded game and big power in his strikes. While he is known mostly for his striking and knockout power, Burkman is a well-rounded fighter that can do a bit of everything. Powerful right hooks, straight lefts, and slapping leg kicks are a few of the staples of his striking game. Josh is not much of a point fighter, he explodes into every strike and always looks to end the fight. The downside of exploding into every strike is that it is taxing on a fighter’s cardio. We have seen Burkman gas out in a few fights, so that is something to watch out for in this contest. From a defensive standpoint Josh is hittable but gets by because of his great chin. Burkman is a former high school wrestler that hits takedowns at a decent clip, especially when he can get in on his opponent’s legs when they are pressed up against the fence. His grappling is also solid, especially in regards to a few go-to submissions, such as his guillotine choke. From top position he throws heavy ground and pound and is a decent passer. While Josh’s takedown defense is decent, he has been put on his back by some of the better grapplers he has faced. That is where he has had trouble, especially when he gets taken down in the later rounds, which is when he is usually tired. Further, Burkman is known for making questionable decisions in his fights, such as shooting for a takedown when he clearly has his opponent hurt on the feet. Additionally, he often does not seem to employ smart gameplans. When Josh fought Steve Carl he elected to turn it into a grappling match instead of using his superior striking. That played right into Carl’s hands, as he ultimately submitted Burkman in the fourth round. Patrick Cote (21-9 MMA, 8-9 UFC, +115 underdog) Not many fighters return to the UFC after getting cut and go on to have much success. This is not the case for Cote, as he has compiled a 4-2 record since returning to the promotion in 2012. Further, the former middleweight has gone 3-1 since dropping to the welterweight division in 2013. He has constantly improved his game in that span, especially in regards to his grappling and wrestling. The Canadian owns victories over Joe Riggs, Ricardo Almeida, Kyle Noke, and Kendall Grove. Cote looks to notch his fifth win in his last six fights when he takes on Burkman this Sunday night. The 35 year old Cote is a one-time challenger for the UFC Middleweight Title, which did not turn out well for him, as he blew his knee out in the third round against longtime kingpin Anderson Silva and could not continue. He has really changed up his game in recent years, as he now uses his wrestling and top control to win fights. For much of his career he was primarily a brawler with knockout power in his hands. While he still has power in his hands and likes to mix things up, he does not have to rely on that strategy in order to win. Cote’s striking consists primarily of a jab, straight right hand, and leg kicks. Strong cardio and chin are two of the intangibles that Patrick possesses. As I mentioned above, Cote has really improved his wrestling and grappling. Many of his takedowns come when he gets his opponent pressed up against the fence, as he is adept at dropping down and hitting a single or double leg takedown. When he gets top position he stays active by throwing steady ground and pound. However, he does not pass guard all that well because he primarily focuses on maintaining top control and not letting his opponent get back to their feet. It is a good strategy to win rounds on the judge’s scorecard, but it is not very effective in regards to finishing fights. The strategy has been working for him though, so I do not expect him to alter course. The offensive submission game of the Quebec, Canada native is not very worrisome for his opponents, as he has not won a fight by submission in nine years. Thoughts: This is a fight between two tough veterans that hit hard and are hard to knock out. Burkman has had a tough go of it as of late, but he has been fighting some of the best guys in the world. Cote has been on a nice little streak, but he has not been facing the same level of opposition. I believe Burkman is the better and more dangerous fighter in this matchup, and I expect him to pick up the win here. He should be able to stuff Cote’s takedown attempts and win most of the striking exchanges. One concern I have is with Burkman’s cardio and decision making. As I mentioned earlier, Burkman tends to make decisions that negatively affect the outcome of his fights. However, if he comes in good shape and fights smart, he should win this fight. The Prediction: Josh Burkman defeats Patrick Cote by unanimous decision.
