UFC 190 looks to be the polar opposite of the last card where the organization decide to host a TUF Brazil finale on pay-per-view. With one of the sport’s most popular fighters in the main event and a host of nostalgia on the undercard, UFC 190 seems like it has something for everyone. Ronda Rousey will fight outside of North America for the first time as she takes on Bethe Correia in her sixth title defense. In a UFC where Chael Sonnen was able to talk his way into some of the biggest fights in organizational history, Correia is by far the least deserving challenger to talk her way into a title shot. Betting lines tell the same story, as Rousey is currently a -1500 favorite (bet $1500 to win $100) and Correia is a +1000 underdog (bet $100 to win $1000). Even by the standard of Rousey’s lines, this is a long one. The co-main event of the card is a rematch a decade in the making. ‘Shogun’ Rua and Rogerio Nogueira will run back their 2005 classic, and while both fighters are well past their primes at this point, hopefully they still match up in a way that makes for a competitive back-and-forth fight. The larger Nogueira will also compete on the card, as he takes on Stefan Struve in a bout where both men will look to pick up their first win since 2012. Since submitting Dave Herman, Nogueira has been submitted by Fabricio Werdum and knocked out by Roy Nelson. Struve’s main event win over Stipe Miocic was followed by TKO losses to Mark Hunt and Alistair Overeem, along with a myriad of health issues. UFC 190 will also feature the lightweight and bantamweight finals of TUF Brazil 4. The biggest name to keep on eye on of the four finalists is Dileno Lopes, a flyweight (competing at bantamweight on the show) from Nova Uniao who has been impressing since long before he appeared on TUF. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the entirety of UFC 190 card today at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (PPV, 10pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 8pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: While spine injuries are always a huge cause for concern, I feel like the massive amount of damage that ‘Shogun’ has accrued over his career is a far bigger concern than the back injury that has kept Nogueira out of action for much of the past two years. As long as he’s able to make it to the fight, I simply think Nogueira will be able to take a shot a bit better than ‘Shogun’ and he’s always been a bit more defensively inclined of the two. I’m not particularly interested in having money on either of these guys at this point in their careers, but if the line gets a little too long on Nogueira, I might be willing to take a bite. I haven’t watched a minute of TUF Brazil 4 (it is 4, right?), but I tend to favor younger fighters coming into a finale, as they should theoretically have more room to improve from the time they leave the show. Not knowing these fighters, I won’t make an actual pick or bet anywhere near this fight, but just noticing the trend in these sorts of situations. The bantamweight final is between a pair of flyweights that I am actually aware of. Dileno Lopes has long been one of the top prospects from Brazil to fight at 125, and Reginaldo Vieira is the reigning Jungle Fight flyweight champion. Both men are very much grapplers, and I think Lopes is simply the stronger wrestler and better overall submission artist. Whether that translates into a submission victory or a decision remains to be seen, but I’m fairly confident that he gets his hand raised. I’m really not sure Struve/Nogueira should be happening. Both men have a long history of injuries, health issues, and getting knocked out in brutal fashion. I think you have to favor Struve just because he’s younger and has some of the physical advantages, but on the feet it could just be a case of who lands first, and as the more technical striker that could very well be Nogueira. I’m not betting Nogueira, because I think that Struve can actually tap him if this hits the mat, but I think he’s got a shot at one more victory in Brazil. Soa Palelei is going to knock out ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, because everyone knocks out ‘Bigfoot’ at this point. Silva is glacially slow, has a massive target for a chin, and simply can’t absorb a punch. I’m not gonna waste a bunch of time on this one, but I think Soa gets it done, and gets it done quickly. It’s just a shame the days of getting plus-money on Silva’s opponents are gone for good. Everything that Jessica Aguilar does to win fights, Claudia Gadelha does better. Gadelha is a stronger wrestler, has better BJJ, and is a more powerful striker. The one edge Aguilar has is her cardio due to all the five-round experience she has under her belt, but that’s not going to play a role in a 15-minute fight, so I like Gadelha to dominate the early rounds, perhaps drop the third, but come away with a clear decision win. I am well aware of the improvements that Neil Magny has made, but his takedown defense remains one area that can be exploited, and that’s exactly what I expect to happen here. Demian Maia has been able to score takedowns against every opponent since he dropped to 170, and he’s faced some far better wrestlers than Magny. I think Magny has improved his grappling enough that he doesn’t get submitted here, but I don’t see him having much success other than that. This fight is very similar for Patrick Cummins as his last one. He’s facing a dangerous striker that he’ll need to get to the ground repeatedly. I think Rafael Cavalcante has better takedown defense than Ovince Saint Preux, but OSP has a better ability to scramble back to his feet which was the difference in that fight. Although Cummins may initially struggle to get Cavalcante down, I think he eventually will, and once that happens we’ll see the former Strikeforce champ tire and potentially quit. Warlley Alves got his bad performance out of the way in his last fight, and I think we’re gonna see what we all expected out of him coming off of TUF Brazil. Nordine Taleb is a good matchup for Alves, because he’s not going to be able to push the pace like Alan Jouban was, and he doesn’t have the chin Jouban does either. I think Alves will find Taleb’s chin and get a stoppage at some point in this fight, and the concerns from his last fight will go away. Iuri Alcantara has some disappointing recent performances to overcome as well, since he was completely listless against Frankie Saenz. He had almost all the edges over Saenz in that fight, but kept dropping to his back and doing nothing from his back. If he has the same approach against Leandro Issa, he could see the same result, but it’s more likely that he’s able to do damage to Issa on the feet. Am I confident enough in that to bet him at -505? Absolutely not, but he’s the probably winner. I think Clint Hester has been a bit overrated because of the athletic potential he shows, but it simply hasn’t translated into fight performances as of yet. He should be more powerful and a better wrestler than Vitor Miranda, but you could have said the same things about his bout with Andy Enz, and he turned that into an extremely close bout. If Hester wrestles, I think he does well here, but I can’t count on him to execute the best gameplan, and for that reason I think there could be a bit of value on Miranda. Guido Cannetti has shown me nothing to think he’s a UFC fighter, and I think Hugo Vianna will end his stint with the promotion via knockout. Vianna is just a whole lot more dangerous than Cannetti, and I expect both fighters to engage in the stand up since Cannetti doesn’t have much of a plan B.
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