The co-main event of UFC on FOX 16 is a three-round women’s bantamweight bout between Miesha Tate and Jessica Eye. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Tate is a -190 favorite (bet $190 to win $100) while Eye is a +165 underdog (bet $100 to win $165). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Tate at -210 and Eye at +160, and there has been back-and-forth betting action as bettors are split on who will win this fight. This is a tricky fight to call, and I’ve been going back and forth on it, but ultimately I side with Tate to get her hand raised. Here’s why. Tate (16-5) is the former Strikeforce women’s bantamweight champion. The 28-year-old American is 3-2 in the UFC with wins over Sara McMann, Liz Carmouche and Rin Nakai with losses to Ronda Rousey and Cat Zingano. Tate is an extremely tough fighter who has proven time and time again that she is not easy to finish. She has an iron chin and her submission defence is excellent as well. She has fantastic wrestling and is able to take down most of her opponents and control them on the ground or got for submissions. She has great cardio and is able to go 15 minutes no problem. Her striking is very rudimentary, however, and she can be marked up on the feet by a better striker, but most of the time she is able to get takedowns and get the fight into her wheelhouse. In the last five years her only losses are to Rousey and Zingano and she’s proven herself time and time again to be one of the best in the world at 135lbs. She takes on Eye in what is likely a No. 1 contender’s fight in the women’s bantamweight division, and with another title shot against Rousey possible, I expect Tate to come to this fight motivated, hungry, and ready to beat Eye and show the world that she’s deserving on getting another crack at the belt. Eye (11-2, 1 NC) is one of the top female bantamweight contenders. The 28-year-old American is 1-1, 1 NC in the UFC with a TKO win over Leslie Smith, a decision loss to Alexis Davis and a No Contest against Sarah Kaufman. Eye is primarily a striker and she has excellent, accurate boxing. She can land on her opponents and will and bust them up, although she doesn’t have true knockout power. She is also able to keep up a solid pace for a full 15 minutes. As for her wrestling, she doesn’t shoot for takedowns but for the most part she has decent takedown defence, although a better wrestler can take her down. She also has decent submissions as well. I think Eye is a really good fighter and she is always improving, but beating Smith doesn’t mean to me that she’s an elite fighter in the division yet, which Tate absolutely is. This is the biggest test of Eye’s career to date, and she has a lot on the line. If she wins, she likely gets to fight Rousey for the title, but if she loses she’ll have to work her way back up the ladder. We’ll see this weekend just how good she really is, as this fight with Tate is a fair test of Eye’s abilities. The fight will come down to whether or not Eye can stuff Tate’s takedowns. If she can stop the takedowns and keep this fight standing, she’s a far superior striker and will demolish Tate. But if she gets taken down, she’s going to lose a decision. So it’s a tricky fight to call, because you are projecting whether or not Eye has shored up her takedown defence since the fight with Davis. I think she’ll have success early on, but as the fight goes on I do expect Tate to land takedowns, and I think she’s going to win a very close decision on the judges’ cards. But for me, this fight is too close to call so I won’t be betting on a side. However, I do like the OVER 2.5 rounds total at -280. It’s a lot of juice, but Eye doesn’t really have knockout power and Tate has proven her durability time and time again. So if I had to bet on this fight I would bet on the OVER, but I would recommend passing on either side.
