One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 72 is a three-round lightweight bout between Joseph Duffy and Ivan Jorge. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Duffy is a -800 favorite (bet $800 to win $100) while Jorge is a +550 underdog (bet $100 to win $550). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Duffy at -705 and Jorge at +435, and more action has come in on the favorite Duffy. I agree with the money coming in on Duffy as I expect him to look impressive in this fight. Here’s why. Duffy (13-1) is one of the top lightweight prospects in the world of MMA. The 27-year-old Irishman is 1-0 so far in the UFC with a destructive TKO win over Jake Lindsey. Prior to the UFC, Duffy competed in Cage Warriors and holds a notable submission win over Conor McGregor, as well as a win over Norman Parke. Duffy is a terrific fighter who is dangerous anywhere the fight goes. He is a former pro boxer and has excellent striking, and he also has a tremendous ground game. Training at TriStar gym in Montreal, he is working with high-level training partners and he keeps improving. He took a three-year layoff between 2011 and 2014 after he lost his title in CWFC to compete in boxing, but since then he’s retuned to MMA and has won three-straight fights by stoppage. He is an awesome fighter and the UFC sees serious potential in him as a star in Europe, and it’s not hard to see why. Duffy is getting a good matchup here against Duffy and it’s a fight he should dominate in, which is why the odds are so high in his favor. Jorge (26-4) is 2-1 in the UFC with decision wins over Keith Wisniewski and Josh Shockley with a decision loss to Rodrigo Damm. The 34-year-old Brazilian is essentially a grinder and he has a decent submission game as well, having won 13 fights by tapout in his career. He also has a lot of experience competing in the sport. Having said that, outside of submission he doesn’t do anything particularly well. His striking isn’t very good and his chin has let him down in the past as well. He has some nice subs on the ground so Duffy has to be careful if the fight goes here, but if he can’t lock in a choke he will not win this fight, and will probably get finished here, which is why the line is so high against him. This is a complete mismatch as far as I’m concerned. Duffy is one of the hottest prospects at 155lbs and I think this will be his coming out party against an aging, mediocre fighter like Jorge. I feel like Duffy can dominate this fight anywhere it goes, but I think for this performance he will look to keep the fight on the feet and knock Jorge out, which I believe is the most-likely outcome in this fight. I like Duffy here a lot to get the win and feel like he’s one of the best parlay pieces of anything available on the board this weekend.
