Hopefully the third time will be the charm for the rematch between UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw and the man he took the title from, Renan Barao. The two were previously scheduled to tangle again at both UFC 177 and UFC 186, with each fighter being forced from the bout once. Unless a repeat of the UFC 177 fiasco happens, it seems like this match will finally be taking place on Saturday night. After becoming one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history to win a fight — let alone a title fight — Dillashaw is now a -220 favorite (bet $220 to win $100) in the rematch with the comeback on Barao at +180 (bet $100 to win $180). The remainder of the main card features the type of bouts typically reserved for FOX: high-paced action fights with finishing potential. The co-main event is a potential number one contender’s bout in the women’s bantamweight division, as Miesha Tate faces the surging Jessica Eye. Tate has won three straight since losing her second title shot against Ronda Rousey, while Eye has shown consistent improvements to go with a rare athleticism in the division. A fantastic striking battle should be in store when lightweights Edson Barboza and Paul Felder square off. Felder has been nothing but impressive in his UFC career thus far, and looks to continue that while stepping in on short notice for Myles Jury. Barboza is attempting to recover from a loss to Michael Johnson in his last outing. The opening bout of the main card doesn’t carry a ton of divisional relevance, but it is an interesting style clash between two historically entertaining fighters. Takanori Gomi is still one of the greatest lightweights ever, and he still possesses the power to change fights. Joe Lauzon is one of the all-time leaders in post-fight bonuses, and his aggressive grappling style is exactly what has given Gomi trouble in the past. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for UFC on FOX 16 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox, 8pm ET) Renan Barao +165 T.J. Dillashaw -215 Bantamweight Title Over 4.5 +115 Under 4.5 -155 — Jessica Eye +160 Miesha Tate -210 Over 2.5 -230 Under 2.5 +170 — Paul Felder +135 Edson Barboza -175 Over 1.5 -180 Under 1.5 +140 — Takanori Gomi +180 Joe Lauzon -260 Over 1.5 -165 Under 1.5 +125 — ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox, 6pm ET) Tom Lawlor +130 Gian Villante -170 Over 2.5 -185 Under 2.5 +145 — Danny Castillo +120 Jim Miller -160 Over 2.5 -230 Under 2.5 +170 — Kenny Robertson +115 Ben Saunders -155 Over 2.5 -150 Under 2.5 +110 — Bryan Caraway +130 Eddie Wineland -170 Over 2.5 -170 Under 2.5 +130 — ——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 4:15pm ET) James Krause +165 Daron Cruickshank -215 Over 2.5 -180 Under 2.5 +140 — Andrew Holbrook +140 Ramsey Nijem -180 Over 1.5 -150 Under 1.5 +110 — Elizabeth Phillips -115 Jessamyn Duke -125 Over 2.5 -155 Under 2.5 +115 — Dominique Steele +250 Zak Cummings -350 Over 2.5 -130 Under 2.5 -110 — ——————– Brad’s Analysis: I think Jessica Eye has the potential to beat Miesha Tate, but it’s hard to say if she’s reached that potential yet. Her two fights against women near the top of the division were both very close, and could have gone either way, but her takedown defense in the Alexis Davis fight is what worries me. Tate is a better wrestler than Davis, and doesn’t slow down in the same way later in the fight. It’s possible Eye has improved her takedown defense enough to keep this on the feet, where we know she has huge advantages in speed, power, and technique, but until we’ve actually seen it, it’s hard to count on it. This fight will be dictated by whoever is moving forward. The reason is simple: Edson Barboza is devastating when he’s on the front foot, and nowhere near the same fighter when being forced back. Paul Felder is effective either way, but I still don’t think he would be able to avoid enough damage to win this fight if Barboza is the aggressor. Being an excellent striker, you’d think Felder would pick up on this and employ a similar gameplan to Michael Johnson in this bout. I think he will, and I think he wins because of it. Barboza always seems to get a ton of support from bettors, so hopefully we get a similar (or better) line than the Johnson fight because of it. I never want to pick or bet against Takanori Gomi, and I think I can find enough reasons to avoid the latter in this spot, but I still have to side with Joe Lauzon as the likely winner. On the ground I don’t see Gomi lasting too long against the vast submission arsenal of Lauzon. However, if Lauzon shows up to this fight looking to strike like he did against Al Iaquinta, that could change. A side of me still hopes for one more Tyson Griffin fight out of Gomi, even though it would suck for it to come at the expense of Lauzon. Tom Lawlor is the latest of a group of fighters returning to the Octagon after two years out of action. It hasn’t gone well for the others (Mike Swick, Dan Miller, and even Cain Velasquez to an extent) so I have a hard time seeing how that will be different with Lawlor. He’s also moving from 185 back up to 205 for the first time since his Ultimate Fighter days. This is still a winnable fight for him, since Gian Villante will fade the deeper this one gets, but I have to side with the guy who has physical advantages that carry through to the striking and wrestling. Aside from getting put on Paul Felder’s highlight reel (something which would have also happened to Jim Miller, had that fight gone through), Danny Castillo has been very competitive against the top of the lightweight division. He gave Tony Ferguson one of his sternest tests (and could have easily won a decision), and deserved a draw against Edson Barboza if MMA judges knew what a 10-8 round was. On the other hand, Miller has been looking good against the middle- and lower-tier fighters in the division, but stumbling big time when he’s forced to step up. I consider this a step up, and I think Danny Castillo is able to wrestle or box his way to a win. Kenny Robertson is awkward at times, but he gets the job done, and against a guy like Ben Saunders — who is content to play from his back — I think he gets the job done one more time on Saturday. There’s no question that Saunders is the more dangerous striker, but that won’t matter when he’s on his back fishing for mission control. Robertson will spend a lot of time on top in this fight, and I can see it being the type of grappling match with a bunch of little guard passes and re-guards. Perhaps not the most exciting fight either guy has been in, but it could get interesting depending on how much they open up on the mat. On The MMA Analysis, we joke about Eddie Wineland and Johnny Eduardo being retired so much that I was actually starting to believe that both were, but apparently Wineland is fighting on this card. It’s actually only been 14 months since his last fight, but it feels like longer. This is a pretty decent style matchup for him, as he can definitely box Caraway if he manages to keep this standing. My problem with that, is I don’t think he’ll keep it standing, Caraway is very tricky at sneaking around to his opponent’s back, even on failed takedowns, and I can see this fight having prolonged periods of Wineland defending the rear-naked choke on his way to a decision loss. I’m a little surprised that James Krause wasn’t cut after his last performance and the comments surrounding it, but I think he will be after this one. Despite being at significant height and reach disadvantages once again in this bout, I think Cruickshank is more able to mix up his attack between striking and grappling. Sam Stout was able to outwrestle Krause, and only lost because of a desperation guillotine, and it’s hard to see Cruickshank making the same type of mistake in-fight (or pre-fight, like against Beneil Dariush) that will give this one away. Andrew Holbrook will have about a month to get ready for this fight when all is said and done, and it may be enough. I’d have to get a juicy line to play him, but with Ramsey Nijem’s propensity to leave his neck out to be choked, and the fact that 6 of Holbrook’s 9 career wins (all via submission, by the way) have come by way of choke, there’s a clear path there. Nijem is the better wrestler here, so the fight depends on Holbrook making Nijem uncomfortable enough to shoot for takedowns, and while that’s possible, I’m not sure it’s the most likely outcome. These fighters are a combined 7-5 overall in MMA and 1-4 in the UFC. I can’t think of a reason to care about this one, but one thing I know for certain is that you cannot bet on any of Ronda Rousey’s friends. Ever. Dom Steele just won the CES welterweight title and got a late replacement call from the UFC. His reward for taking the call is facing a guy who is better than him at exactly the things he does. Zak Cummings should be slightly better on the feet than Steele, but I see most of this fight taking place in the clinch and wrestling exchanges, and I just see Cummings being better in those places. Steele is tough, so this is likely headed for the scorecards, but that’s about the only solace I see him taking from this one.
