One of the main card bouts at the TUF 21 Finale is a three-round welterweight bout between Jorge Masvidal and Cezar Ferreira. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Masvidal is a -260 favorite (bet $260 to win $100) while Ferreira is a +220 underdog (bet $100 to win $220). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Masvidal at -300 and Ferreira at +220, and there has been back-and-forth action as the lines have tightened. I agree with Masvidal being a big favorite as I fully expect him to win this fight, likely by knockout. Here’s why. Masvidal (28-9) is one of the top-15 lightweights in the UFC but is moving up to welterweight after realizing the cut to 155lbs was hurting his performances. He has fought at 170lbs in the past with mixed success, but I am expecting good things from him this time around. The 30-year-old American is a long-time veteran of the sport and has fought for a number of different promotions. Since coming to the UFC, he’s 5-2 in the Octagon with wins over Tim Means, James Krause, Pat Healy, Daron Cruickshank and Michael Chiesa with losses to Al Iaquinta and Rustam Khabilov. Masvidal is a very well-round fighter. He has great striking, underrated wrestling, sneaky submissions, solid cardio and a fantastic chin. He’s just a very well-rounded mixed martial artist. He had some issues with his weight cut to 155lbs, but moving back up to 170 he says he’s sleeping better and I expect even better things from him. He has an interesting fight here against Ferreira, a bigger opponent, but Masvidal is a better fighter and should win this fight, hence his status as a sizeable favorite. Ferreira (8-4) won TUF Brazil 1 and has since gone on to compile a 4-2 record in the UFC with wins over Thiago Santos, Andrew Craig, Daniel Sarafian, and Sergio Moraes with losses to Sam Alvey and CB Dollaway. The 30-year-old Brazilian is a talented grappler and he also has some decent striking to go along with solid wrestling. He’s a very skilled fighter, but he’s being held back by his chin. He has been knocked out in three of his four losses and cutting down to 170lbs, I don’t expect his ability to take a punch to get any better. He’s definitely a talented fighter, but facing a high-level striker like Masvidal looks like a bad matchup for him. He’s going to look to take this fight to the ground and try and submit Masvidal, but if he can’t do that he’s likely to be KOed, which is why the line is the way it is. It’s a weird matchup because of the weight differential, but overall I just feel like Masvidal is a far superior mixed martial artist and I think he takes advantage of Ferreira’s weak chin and knocks him out. I think Ferreira’s chin is going to be even worse dropping down to 170lbs while I actually feel Masvidal is going to flourish at 170lbs after draining his body badly to make 155lbs. I think this is a good weight class for Masvidal and I expect him to pull a Tim Means and look even better up a weight class. Masvidal is -260 but I think that’s fair and I believe he’s worth parlaying this weekend. Update: Masvidal missed weight, however, I still like for him to win this fight, I just wouldn’t recommend going heavy on him now.
